4 ms·

In four years Musk will be bored to death with Twitter and will sell it to private equity and the Saudis for $5 billion. At that point it will be mostly a platf

by pavlov 4y ago

In four years Musk will be bored to death with Twitter and will sell it to private equity and the Saudis for $5 billion. At that point it will be mostly a platform for porn creators and crypto pumping, the only two verticals where Twitter seems to be actually growing lately.

napolux 4y ago
!remindMe 2027
pjc50 4y ago
Given that Twitter the company owes $12bn to Morgan Stanley, that will be a serious problem for them.
- SkipperCat 4y ago
  Meh, Morgan Stanley has had bigger losses. How much of it is actually their money anyway? My guess is the losses will be passed down to the individuals who gave MS the $$$. Morgan probably bundled it all up, made a nice fee, and passed it on to Musk.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - lultimouomo 4y ago
    > Morgan probably bundled it all up, made a nice fee, and passed it on to Musk. It has not. The debt was conditional on the acquisition of Twitter by Musk, so Morgan Stanley could not sell it before the acquisition was completed. But the debt was necessary for the acquisition, so the acquisition could not be completed without the debt money. Therefore, they had to happen at the same time, with M&S fronting the money. Of course the terms of the debt, and the price of the acquisition, had to be both defined for everything to move forward, so they were finalized months ago. When Musk signed a contract with Morgan Stanley, money was cheap, so the debt has very low interest. When the debt has actually been issued, a few days ago, money had become more expensive; Morgan Stanley won't find anyone to buy it as-is. To sell it they will have to discount it quite deeply, losing a bunch of money; otherwise they'll be stuck with it.
- medina 4y ago
  MS led consortium (and underwrote largest), 21-27% each spread out across MS, BofA, Barclays, MUFG + smaller to others. (ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-07/morgan-stanley-led-banks-face-500-million-loss-on-twitter-debt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-07/morgan-st...) (Edit: typo)
mlatu 4y ago
didnt elon get a loan from a saudi crownprince and paying interest of around a billion$ per year?
- VectorLock 4y ago
  We know what they do with journalists that tick them off, I shudder to think what they'd do to someone who doesn't repay their debts...
  - JshWright 4y ago
    Someone who owes you a debt is useful. A journalist who is shining light on things you'd prefer to keep hidden is not useful at all.
    - VectorLock 4y ago
      There are, some say, things worse than death.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  No to both. The crown prince already owned a large stake of twitter, and decided to maintain ownership stake after the buyout. They are still a shareholder, like before, not a loan holder. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2022/10/31/saudi-prince-alwaleed-becomes-twitters-second-largest-shareholder/?sh=1c6c7072523a https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2022/10/31/saudi-prin...
  - DesiLurker 4y ago
    financing table at the end says otherwise: https://danluu.com/elon-twitter-texts/#47 https://danluu.com/elon-twitter-texts/#47
    - s1artibartfast 4y ago
      The table is wrong. If you click the link to the actual SEC filing, it says otherwise. Alwaleed put stock, not cash towards the purchase and will "retain an equity investment in Twitter following completion of the Merger" https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922056055/tm2214608-1_sc13da.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922...
notacoward 4y ago
Do you really think it will be four years? Considering his attention span, and the rapidity with which Twitter is already deteriorating, I suspect it will be much less than that.
- cal85 4y ago
  Yeah he’s only seen like a handful of new space rocket designs through from conception to profitability, and he only created one major car company before moving onto other things. He can never stick to anything.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    I agree that "short attention span" doesn't seem like it belongs on Musk's very long list of negative qualities, but a reminder: he was not an initial founder of Tesla, he bought in a year later and claimed to be a founder until he was sued and reached an agreement[0]. 0. https://www.cnet.com/culture/tesla-motors-founders-now-there-are-five/ https://www.cnet.com/culture/tesla-motors-founders-now-there...
    - notacoward 4y ago
      It's worth noting that Tesla was founded 19 years ago. People often change quite a bit in that time. Look at Musk's recent behavior.
      - cal85 4y ago
        That is a fair point. I just am not sure his recent behaviour actually suggests he’s got a short attention span. I suspect he’s wanted to take over Twitter for a long time and is now rushing to carry out changes that he’s long planned. He might be acting too excitedly, he might screw it up by going too fast and rough with the changes, but I don’t see that as indicating a short attention span. Maybe impatience.
ignoramous 4y ago
> At that point it will be mostly a platform for porn creators and crypto pumping, the only two verticals where Twitter seems to be actually growing lately. Like justin.tv/twitch, they might do well to identify the pivot.
RockyMcNuts 4y ago
temperamentally he is mercurial and polarizing which is the opposite of what Twitter needs. maybe he can turn Twitter into a super-app on the console of every Tesla. a plan is not in evidence other than throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks. 'move fast and break things' might really unlock opportunities, or destroy trust. Zuck was unusually good at fake apologies while continuing to data-rape and strip-mine users, but trust is a problem for Facebook and will be exponentially worse for Musk. it could indeed turn into MuskChan. if he is really going to turn a blue check into something anyone can buy without providing ID it's just a matter of time before impersonation scams multiply. it will be an incredible distraction from challenges at his other ventures. Saudis and pedophiles are going to use it to abduct people. what is he going to do when people/nations go nuts about something on Twitter and take it out on Tesla? I'm also skeptical of the weird turnabout between 'get me out of this deal at any cost' and rushing to pay up in full. either a side deal with e.g. Saudis or there was something existential about to come out in discovery.

by pavlov 4y ago

napolux 4y ago

!remindMe 2027

pjc50 4y ago

Given that Twitter the company owes $12bn to Morgan Stanley, that will be a serious problem for them.

SkipperCat 4y ago
Meh, Morgan Stanley has had bigger losses. How much of it is actually their money anyway? My guess is the losses will be passed down to the individuals who gave MS the $$$. Morgan probably bundled it all up, made a nice fee, and passed it on to Musk.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- lultimouomo 4y ago
  > Morgan probably bundled it all up, made a nice fee, and passed it on to Musk. It has not. The debt was conditional on the acquisition of Twitter by Musk, so Morgan Stanley could not sell it before the acquisition was completed. But the debt was necessary for the acquisition, so the acquisition could not be completed without the debt money. Therefore, they had to happen at the same time, with M&S fronting the money. Of course the terms of the debt, and the price of the acquisition, had to be both defined for everything to move forward, so they were finalized months ago. When Musk signed a contract with Morgan Stanley, money was cheap, so the debt has very low interest. When the debt has actually been issued, a few days ago, money had become more expensive; Morgan Stanley won't find anyone to buy it as-is. To sell it they will have to discount it quite deeply, losing a bunch of money; otherwise they'll be stuck with it.
medina 4y ago
MS led consortium (and underwrote largest), 21-27% each spread out across MS, BofA, Barclays, MUFG + smaller to others. (ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-07/morgan-stanley-led-banks-face-500-million-loss-on-twitter-debt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-07/morgan-st...) (Edit: typo)

mlatu 4y ago

didnt elon get a loan from a saudi crownprince and paying interest of around a billion$ per year?

VectorLock 4y ago
We know what they do with journalists that tick them off, I shudder to think what they'd do to someone who doesn't repay their debts...
- JshWright 4y ago
  Someone who owes you a debt is useful. A journalist who is shining light on things you'd prefer to keep hidden is not useful at all.
  - VectorLock 4y ago
    There are, some say, things worse than death.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
No to both. The crown prince already owned a large stake of twitter, and decided to maintain ownership stake after the buyout. They are still a shareholder, like before, not a loan holder. https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2022/10/31/saudi-prince-alwaleed-becomes-twitters-second-largest-shareholder/?sh=1c6c7072523a https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattdurot/2022/10/31/saudi-prin...
- DesiLurker 4y ago
  financing table at the end says otherwise: https://danluu.com/elon-twitter-texts/#47 https://danluu.com/elon-twitter-texts/#47
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    The table is wrong. If you click the link to the actual SEC filing, it says otherwise. Alwaleed put stock, not cash towards the purchase and will "retain an equity investment in Twitter following completion of the Merger" https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922056055/tm2214608-1_sc13da.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922...

notacoward 4y ago

Do you really think it will be four years? Considering his attention span, and the rapidity with which Twitter is already deteriorating, I suspect it will be much less than that.

cal85 4y ago
Yeah he’s only seen like a handful of new space rocket designs through from conception to profitability, and he only created one major car company before moving onto other things. He can never stick to anything.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- pwinnski 4y ago
  I agree that "short attention span" doesn't seem like it belongs on Musk's very long list of negative qualities, but a reminder: he was not an initial founder of Tesla, he bought in a year later and claimed to be a founder until he was sued and reached an agreement[0]. 0. https://www.cnet.com/culture/tesla-motors-founders-now-there-are-five/ https://www.cnet.com/culture/tesla-motors-founders-now-there...
  - notacoward 4y ago
    It's worth noting that Tesla was founded 19 years ago. People often change quite a bit in that time. Look at Musk's recent behavior.
    - cal85 4y ago
      That is a fair point. I just am not sure his recent behaviour actually suggests he’s got a short attention span. I suspect he’s wanted to take over Twitter for a long time and is now rushing to carry out changes that he’s long planned. He might be acting too excitedly, he might screw it up by going too fast and rough with the changes, but I don’t see that as indicating a short attention span. Maybe impatience.

ignoramous 4y ago

> At that point it will be mostly a platform for porn creators and crypto pumping, the only two verticals where Twitter seems to be actually growing lately. Like justin.tv/twitch, they might do well to identify the pivot.

RockyMcNuts 4y ago

temperamentally he is mercurial and polarizing which is the opposite of what Twitter needs. maybe he can turn Twitter into a super-app on the console of every Tesla. a plan is not in evidence other than throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks. 'move fast and break things' might really unlock opportunities, or destroy trust. Zuck was unusually good at fake apologies while continuing to data-rape and strip-mine users, but trust is a problem for Facebook and will be exponentially worse for Musk. it could indeed turn into MuskChan. if he is really going to turn a blue check into something anyone can buy without providing ID it's just a matter of time before impersonation scams multiply. it will be an incredible distraction from challenges at his other ventures. Saudis and pedophiles are going to use it to abduct people. what is he going to do when people/nations go nuts about something on Twitter and take it out on Tesla? I'm also skeptical of the weird turnabout between 'get me out of this deal at any cost' and rushing to pay up in full. either a side deal with e.g. Saudis or there was something existential about to come out in discovery.