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It is amazing how software engineers and AI researchers are automating themselves out of their jobs. Sure, it is all good if the revenue generated from automati

It is amazing how software engineers and AI researchers are automating themselves out of their jobs. Sure, it is all good if the revenue generated from automation is used for the good of all people, and if the AIs are aligned/ friendly. But looking at current indications, none of that is going to happen.

DoingIsLearning 4y ago
The way I see it the only jobs you are realistically automating (without full on AGI) are the CRUD and pipework jobs which are unambiguously explainable without a lot of context. The difficulty/complexity in delivering software is mostly on having accurate domain knowledge on the problem you are trying to solve and how users or other machines in that environment interact with said software. So again, unless we hit a landmark of a very outperforming AGI I think that much of the domain knowledge in many software 'niches' will be out of reach of automation. That is not to say that many sub-tasks/boilerplate cannot be automated.
- lbriner 4y ago
  But you are missing the point that even a robot could code 90% of the boilerplate and leave it to someone with domain knowledge to check it through and possibly tweak a few bits.
  - antigirl 4y ago
    Great, i can review it then. I don't want to write boilerplate or tooling. It's a waste of my time.
  - girvo 4y ago
    Is that not a good thing? That’s the worst part of software development frankly, writing that grunt work piping code.
  - k3liutZu 4y ago
    GitHub Copilot is starting to do this for me for specific items.
  - morelisp 4y ago
    If you spend 90% of your time on boilerplate you’re already going to be “automated” out by a cleverer primate.
jasmer 4y ago
AI is just tech. It will enable things, including automation, just like previous generations of tech. The dawn of the industrial revolution, in which we leveraged machines that were measured in 'horse power' (!) doing far more work than a man (or horse), didn't 'put us out of business' so to speak. Wages skyrocketed. Towards the start of the 20th century wages were high enough that rich folk couldn't afford to keep regular workers around as staff anymore. Every phase is different of course.
- ehnto 4y ago
  I feel it would be naive to think it will just work itself out through capitalism though, it's worth thinking about what impact it will have and whether or not we need some new policies to help society truly capitalize in social value terms, on automation of everything we can automate. GDP is not a measure of how well your society is doing, and with automation we could skyrocket GDP and absolutely tank social measures of wellbeing. In other words social reforms around how people earn income, or gain housing, food and necessities, might need to happen as we remove more and more jobs. I'd like to think that as people are freed up they'll be able to do other jobs, but if we plan to automate everything we possibly can that has to eventually be false. Unless everyone's going to be a creative, and even the commercial side of that is starting to be automated. At my work people are already using AI generated images instead of stock photos, and AI generated jingles instead of stock music.
  - pizza234 4y ago
    > might need to happen as we remove more and more jobs. > if we plan to automate everything we possibly can that has to eventually be false These are forms of the lump of labour fallacy (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_jobs_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_jobs_fallacy). Automation has been happening since the industrial revolution (or the stone age, depending on how one sees it). If jobs were only removed, humanity would have been jobless long ago. People surely thought exactly the same thoughs a few centuries ago.
    - ehnto 4y ago
nathias 4y ago
yes, tools make some jobs easier or redundant, we've been doing this since the stone age
weatherlite 4y ago
Anything that can be automated will be automated. Software engineers are very expensive so the money is there to be made. So are doctors, accountants etc. I don't think its feasible but I'm sure people are working towards it. I'd start with healthcare actually because the West is aging rapidly.

DoingIsLearning 4y ago

The way I see it the only jobs you are realistically automating (without full on AGI) are the CRUD and pipework jobs which are unambiguously explainable without a lot of context. The difficulty/complexity in delivering software is mostly on having accurate domain knowledge on the problem you are trying to solve and how users or other machines in that environment interact with said software. So again, unless we hit a landmark of a very outperforming AGI I think that much of the domain knowledge in many software 'niches' will be out of reach of automation. That is not to say that many sub-tasks/boilerplate cannot be automated.

lbriner 4y ago
But you are missing the point that even a robot could code 90% of the boilerplate and leave it to someone with domain knowledge to check it through and possibly tweak a few bits.
- antigirl 4y ago
  Great, i can review it then. I don't want to write boilerplate or tooling. It's a waste of my time.
- girvo 4y ago
  Is that not a good thing? That’s the worst part of software development frankly, writing that grunt work piping code.
- k3liutZu 4y ago
  GitHub Copilot is starting to do this for me for specific items.
- morelisp 4y ago
  If you spend 90% of your time on boilerplate you’re already going to be “automated” out by a cleverer primate.

jasmer 4y ago

AI is just tech. It will enable things, including automation, just like previous generations of tech. The dawn of the industrial revolution, in which we leveraged machines that were measured in 'horse power' (!) doing far more work than a man (or horse), didn't 'put us out of business' so to speak. Wages skyrocketed. Towards the start of the 20th century wages were high enough that rich folk couldn't afford to keep regular workers around as staff anymore. Every phase is different of course.

ehnto 4y ago
I feel it would be naive to think it will just work itself out through capitalism though, it's worth thinking about what impact it will have and whether or not we need some new policies to help society truly capitalize in social value terms, on automation of everything we can automate. GDP is not a measure of how well your society is doing, and with automation we could skyrocket GDP and absolutely tank social measures of wellbeing. In other words social reforms around how people earn income, or gain housing, food and necessities, might need to happen as we remove more and more jobs. I'd like to think that as people are freed up they'll be able to do other jobs, but if we plan to automate everything we possibly can that has to eventually be false. Unless everyone's going to be a creative, and even the commercial side of that is starting to be automated. At my work people are already using AI generated images instead of stock photos, and AI generated jingles instead of stock music.
- pizza234 4y ago
  > might need to happen as we remove more and more jobs. > if we plan to automate everything we possibly can that has to eventually be false These are forms of the lump of labour fallacy (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_jobs_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_jobs_fallacy). Automation has been happening since the industrial revolution (or the stone age, depending on how one sees it). If jobs were only removed, humanity would have been jobless long ago. People surely thought exactly the same thoughs a few centuries ago.
  - ehnto 4y ago

nathias 4y ago

yes, tools make some jobs easier or redundant, we've been doing this since the stone age

weatherlite 4y ago

Anything that can be automated will be automated. Software engineers are very expensive so the money is there to be made. So are doctors, accountants etc. I don't think its feasible but I'm sure people are working towards it. I'd start with healthcare actually because the West is aging rapidly.