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Even then, in the U.S. less than 5% of mortgages are variable rate loans: "The percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages to total loans shrank from a high of rou
by chrisco255 4y ago
Even then, in the U.S. less than 5% of mortgages are variable rate loans:
"The percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages to total loans shrank from a high of roughly 34% in 2005 to a low of under 5% in 2022. The decline began when the housing market peaked around 2006 and bottomed in 2009 at around 2.5%."
https://www.financialsamurai.com/adjustable-rate-mortgages-as-a-percentage-of-total-loans/ https://www.financialsamurai.com/adjustable-rate-mortgages-a...
Everyone is always fighting the last war. The real estate market may slow down here, maybe even prices decline in either real or nominal terms, but I don't think real estate is where the biggest risks lay, at least in the domestic US real estate market (can't say anything for China or AUS or other markets that seem primed for a dramatic bust).
I'm far more concerned about sovereign debt levels, which have absolutely ballooned over the past decade, and are even accelerating in growth in many cases.
- bcrosby95 4y agoReal estate is, unironically different this time. A key component in this run up vs the last is, last time rents did not increase nearly as much as home prices. In 2005-2006 I was paying $2200/mo to rent a house worth $1 million. And no, it wasn't rent controlled. That rent prices haven't massively dislocated from housing prices makes me think it's not the same situation.