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The global economic situation is certainly complicated, but at least in the US growth seems healthy at the moment. My take is that most companies are taking adv

The global economic situation is certainly complicated, but at least in the US growth seems healthy at the moment. My take is that most companies are taking advantage of the impression that we're in hard economic times to perform layoffs that they wanted to do anyway. There are certainly cases where companies were too optimistic (expecting a bigger post-pandemic "bounce") and over hired. As far as the UK goes though, this is just result of multiple terrible decisions and incompetence on the part of the government (Brexit, Truss's proposed tax cuts for the rich, etc). It is almost entirely self-inflicted, and the incredibly predictable outcome of the government's actions.

fny 4y ago
> My take is that most companies are taking advantage of the impression that we're in hard economic times to perform layoffs that they wanted to do anyway. And convince people to take a wage cut or outsource/"insource" labor.
- oxfordmale 4y ago
  The lay offs are driven directly by the cost of borrowing that has gone up this year. We had a decade where money was pretty much free. Now money is no longer free, companies are looking at cutting costs.
  - fny 4y ago
    No it's not. I know this is the narrative being pushed, but this is not a real problem. Remember, the US government pumped out $3T that's still circulating, and there was record borrowing at ZIRP for bonds with 30 year duration. The Fed's hikes are an attempt to slow that down, but money is still on average cheap.
hcurtiss 4y ago
>As far as the UK goes though, this is just result of multiple terrible decisions and incompetence on the part of the government. What is your evidence for this? It seems most countries in the euro zone are identically situated.
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  The government was planning to do tax cuts (further increasing demand during a period of already-high inflation) when the central bank was trying to get inflation under control. The market saw the writing on the wall and people began selling off UK currency, causing the value of the pound to plummet. The central bank had to reverse course and decrease rates to prop up the pound in the short term to stabilize the economy. Ultimately the PM fired her economic minister and then she was ultimately forced to resign herself. This situation was unprecedented anywhere globally as far as I'm aware.
- pdpi 4y ago
  Most countries in the Euro zone aren't on their third government since the summer, and didn't have one of those governments collapse in the fallout of introducing a tax cut for the rich, funded entirely through borrowing, which made their bond yields shoot through the roof.
  - hcurtiss 4y ago
    Political turnover doesn’t really substantiate the idea that Britain is entering a recession because of bad economic choices. Again, the rest of the eurozone is in the same boat. To me, it only substantiates political discontent and a system of government where that kind of turnover is possible. I see little evidence that Britain’s current state of affairs is because of Brexit.
  - oxfordmale 4y ago
    Most countries in the world didn't stick up a middle finger to their largest trading partner, and then failed to replace it, in a timely fashion, with alternative trade deals. Most countries in Europe aren't also selling gas's to other countries, knowing full well they will have to buy it back at a higher price in the winter. The UK has very little gas storage compared to other EU countries.
- JimBlackwood 4y ago
  UK seems to be in a different boat due to Brexit. While definitely suffering from the same issues as the EU, they're not in a place to bounce back. Even before the current crisis, it was looking increasingly gloom. See also the wikipedia page on the economic effects of Brexit for reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit
kmerroll 4y ago
All respect, but regarding the UK economic situation I think you meant (Freedom and national autonomy, and Truss's job builders empowerment). Yes, self inflicted but also incredibly awesome -- just depends on your view. I'll see myself out.
- unsui 4y ago
  > I'll see myself out. yes, please do

fny 4y ago

> My take is that most companies are taking advantage of the impression that we're in hard economic times to perform layoffs that they wanted to do anyway. And convince people to take a wage cut or outsource/"insource" labor.

oxfordmale 4y ago
The lay offs are driven directly by the cost of borrowing that has gone up this year. We had a decade where money was pretty much free. Now money is no longer free, companies are looking at cutting costs.
- fny 4y ago
  No it's not. I know this is the narrative being pushed, but this is not a real problem. Remember, the US government pumped out $3T that's still circulating, and there was record borrowing at ZIRP for bonds with 30 year duration. The Fed's hikes are an attempt to slow that down, but money is still on average cheap.

hcurtiss 4y ago

>As far as the UK goes though, this is just result of multiple terrible decisions and incompetence on the part of the government. What is your evidence for this? It seems most countries in the euro zone are identically situated.

throwaway894345 4y ago
The government was planning to do tax cuts (further increasing demand during a period of already-high inflation) when the central bank was trying to get inflation under control. The market saw the writing on the wall and people began selling off UK currency, causing the value of the pound to plummet. The central bank had to reverse course and decrease rates to prop up the pound in the short term to stabilize the economy. Ultimately the PM fired her economic minister and then she was ultimately forced to resign herself. This situation was unprecedented anywhere globally as far as I'm aware.
pdpi 4y ago
Most countries in the Euro zone aren't on their third government since the summer, and didn't have one of those governments collapse in the fallout of introducing a tax cut for the rich, funded entirely through borrowing, which made their bond yields shoot through the roof.
- hcurtiss 4y ago
  Political turnover doesn’t really substantiate the idea that Britain is entering a recession because of bad economic choices. Again, the rest of the eurozone is in the same boat. To me, it only substantiates political discontent and a system of government where that kind of turnover is possible. I see little evidence that Britain’s current state of affairs is because of Brexit.
- oxfordmale 4y ago
  Most countries in the world didn't stick up a middle finger to their largest trading partner, and then failed to replace it, in a timely fashion, with alternative trade deals. Most countries in Europe aren't also selling gas's to other countries, knowing full well they will have to buy it back at a higher price in the winter. The UK has very little gas storage compared to other EU countries.
JimBlackwood 4y ago
UK seems to be in a different boat due to Brexit. While definitely suffering from the same issues as the EU, they're not in a place to bounce back. Even before the current crisis, it was looking increasingly gloom. See also the wikipedia page on the economic effects of Brexit for reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit

kmerroll 4y ago

All respect, but regarding the UK economic situation I think you meant (Freedom and national autonomy, and Truss's job builders empowerment). Yes, self inflicted but also incredibly awesome -- just depends on your view. I'll see myself out.

unsui 4y ago
> I'll see myself out. yes, please do