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"We’ve had artificially low interest rates (+ QE) for over a decade now." No, you misunderstand the situation. We had artificially high interest rates for at l
by lkrubner 4y ago
"We’ve had artificially low interest rates (+ QE) for over a decade now."
No, you misunderstand the situation. We had artificially high interest rates for at least the period from late 2008 to about 2014 -- if we assume the Taylor Rule is "the natural rate", as Taylor originally defined it in 1993, as the rate that allows the maximum possible employment balanced with just 2% inflation. For most of the period 2008-2014, that would have implied a rate of negative 5% interest, but banks cannot go much below 0%, so they were up against the zero lower bound, and so the rate was artificially high -- it was stuck at 0% when the economy needed it to fall to negative 5%, so as the restore what maximum employment could be achieved against the limit of 2% inflation.
(Taylor himself later modified the Taylor Rule in response to feedback from Republicans, a story you can grasp from this: https://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/12/on-the-definition-of-a-taylor-rule.html https://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/12/on-the-definition-of-... )
- mywittyname 4y agoTIL. Thanks for this.
- bjornsing 4y agoMy wording was unfortunate. “Extremely low interest rates” would have been better. But all this is a bit beside the point as I see it. If you run the economy on negative real interest rates for an extended period of time you will see seemingly profitable economic activity that in fact destroys economic value (but does so slower than the negative real interest rate). When rates go up such activities will reveal themselves as unprofitable.