6 ms·

So, you are saying there is no economic slowdown? Have you looked outside?

by ergocoder 4y ago

xadhominemx 4y ago
There is not a slowdown in nominal consumer expenditure, which is what matters for Stripe.
- ergocoder 4y ago
  That is not true. Multiple Stripe customers have layoff due to slow down revenue growth themselves. For example, Lyft is laying off people today. Are we in a different universe or what?
  - xadhominemx 4y ago
    Yes, Stripe customers have seen slowing growth post-COVID which is why Stripe’s pace of share gain has slowed. Macro, ie nominal consumer expenditures, has remained strong.
    - ergocoder 4y ago
      Stripe is a growth company. When it doesn't grow, it has to scale back. > nominal consumer expenditures, has remained strong. Compared to when? Not last year for sure.
      - xadhominemx 4y ago
        Do you know what “nominal consumer expenditures” means? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE
        ergocoder 4y ago
        I think we talk about two different things. You threw out random metrics and claimed it is still growing therefore Stripe's revenue should not slow down. I claimed that two of the largest Stripe customers have their revenue slowing down, and this slows down stripe revenue. These 2 are just examples. Uber, Doordash, and many more companies who are Stripe customers also have their revenue slowing down. Do you think you metrics is more relevant than stripe customers' revenue? Stripe earns when their customers earn. My metrics is the most direct one. Also, online purchase is only 15-20% of all purchases by volume. And we haven't accounted for Paypal, Square, and etc. Your metrics is crap...
        xadhominemx 4y ago
        You’re saying Stripes growth slowed because their customers growth slowed. Given the nature of Stripes business, this is tautological. I’m saying, Stripes deceleration is not due to macro (ie overall macroeconomic conditions), but a result of post-Covid normalization in the business results of its customers. This is obvious, as overall nominal PCE have not slowed.
giantrobot 4y ago
I didn't say anything about an economic slowdown. What I said was Stripe's management may not be telling the whole truth with their statements.
- ergocoder 4y ago
  You meant stripe management lie about the economic slowdown.... It is slowing down.
BaseballPhysics 4y ago
Why would I look outside? That's how you find out the weather. I looked at the data. US GDP growth was positive in the third quarter. Unemployment is at record lows. Again, there are headwinds. Inflation is high and as a result consumer confidence is low. That's bad. But the only people crying "recession" are people paying too much attention to the stock market. The real story is far more complex, and there's very little sign of a broad based economic slowdown. Would you care to provide the data you're using to back up your claims?
- ergocoder 4y ago
  Here is one data point: For example, Lyft and Shopify who are one of the largest customers of Stripe is slowing down in their revenue growth. You can just look at their financials in the past few quarters. They even have layoffs themselves. That majorly has negative impact on stripe's revenue.
  - BaseballPhysics 4y ago
    Cool, two companies, one (Shopify) which saw a huge bump in revenues during COVID thanks to a rise in internet purchasing and is seeing the numbers slump back to normal as shopping habits revert to the mean, and the other (Lyft) that's in an industry that declined throughout COVID due to pandemic concerns and hasn't surged back in the face of competition from both Uber and traditional cabs. Again: I have data about the entire economy. That data tells a story that's mixed but relatively positive. You have two specific examples, each of which represent a corner of entire economic sectors, and those sectors represent only a fraction of the total economy. And I'm supposed to conclude that you're the one who has it right?
    - ergocoder 4y ago
      > Cool, two companies, one (Shopify) which saw a huge bump in revenues during COVID thanks to a rise in internet purchasing and is seeing the numbers slump back to normal as shopping habits revert to the mean, and the other (Lyft) that's in an industry that declined throughout COVID due to pandemic concerns and hasn't surged back in the face of competition from both Uber and traditional cabs. Why would your explanation matter? The conclusion still remains. Their revenue slows down. Therefore, stripe's revenue slows down. For sure, it is not growing faster. You didn't contradict my point at all. > Again: I have data about the entire economy. That data tells a story that's mixed but relatively positive Stripe's revenue growth does indeed slows down. There is no dispute of that. If Stripe was making 1 trillions USD more, they wouldn't have laid off people, obviously. Now I or the founders claim it is because the macro economic is bad. You might contradict this part. Well you have been taunting it for 2 comments now. Can you share your evidence? Or we should continue quibble a bit more first?

So, you are saying there is no economic slowdown? Have you looked outside?

xadhominemx 4y ago

There is not a slowdown in nominal consumer expenditure, which is what matters for Stripe.

ergocoder 4y ago
That is not true. Multiple Stripe customers have layoff due to slow down revenue growth themselves. For example, Lyft is laying off people today. Are we in a different universe or what?
- xadhominemx 4y ago
  Yes, Stripe customers have seen slowing growth post-COVID which is why Stripe’s pace of share gain has slowed. Macro, ie nominal consumer expenditures, has remained strong.
  - ergocoder 4y ago
    Stripe is a growth company. When it doesn't grow, it has to scale back. > nominal consumer expenditures, has remained strong. Compared to when? Not last year for sure.
    - xadhominemx 4y ago
      Do you know what “nominal consumer expenditures” means? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCE
      - ergocoder 4y ago
        I think we talk about two different things. You threw out random metrics and claimed it is still growing therefore Stripe's revenue should not slow down. I claimed that two of the largest Stripe customers have their revenue slowing down, and this slows down stripe revenue. These 2 are just examples. Uber, Doordash, and many more companies who are Stripe customers also have their revenue slowing down. Do you think you metrics is more relevant than stripe customers' revenue? Stripe earns when their customers earn. My metrics is the most direct one. Also, online purchase is only 15-20% of all purchases by volume. And we haven't accounted for Paypal, Square, and etc. Your metrics is crap...
        xadhominemx 4y ago
        You’re saying Stripes growth slowed because their customers growth slowed. Given the nature of Stripes business, this is tautological. I’m saying, Stripes deceleration is not due to macro (ie overall macroeconomic conditions), but a result of post-Covid normalization in the business results of its customers. This is obvious, as overall nominal PCE have not slowed.

giantrobot 4y ago

I didn't say anything about an economic slowdown. What I said was Stripe's management may not be telling the whole truth with their statements.

ergocoder 4y ago
You meant stripe management lie about the economic slowdown.... It is slowing down.

BaseballPhysics 4y ago

Why would I look outside? That's how you find out the weather. I looked at the data. US GDP growth was positive in the third quarter. Unemployment is at record lows. Again, there are headwinds. Inflation is high and as a result consumer confidence is low. That's bad. But the only people crying "recession" are people paying too much attention to the stock market. The real story is far more complex, and there's very little sign of a broad based economic slowdown. Would you care to provide the data you're using to back up your claims?

ergocoder 4y ago
Here is one data point: For example, Lyft and Shopify who are one of the largest customers of Stripe is slowing down in their revenue growth. You can just look at their financials in the past few quarters. They even have layoffs themselves. That majorly has negative impact on stripe's revenue.
- BaseballPhysics 4y ago
  Cool, two companies, one (Shopify) which saw a huge bump in revenues during COVID thanks to a rise in internet purchasing and is seeing the numbers slump back to normal as shopping habits revert to the mean, and the other (Lyft) that's in an industry that declined throughout COVID due to pandemic concerns and hasn't surged back in the face of competition from both Uber and traditional cabs. Again: I have data about the entire economy. That data tells a story that's mixed but relatively positive. You have two specific examples, each of which represent a corner of entire economic sectors, and those sectors represent only a fraction of the total economy. And I'm supposed to conclude that you're the one who has it right?
  - ergocoder 4y ago
    > Cool, two companies, one (Shopify) which saw a huge bump in revenues during COVID thanks to a rise in internet purchasing and is seeing the numbers slump back to normal as shopping habits revert to the mean, and the other (Lyft) that's in an industry that declined throughout COVID due to pandemic concerns and hasn't surged back in the face of competition from both Uber and traditional cabs. Why would your explanation matter? The conclusion still remains. Their revenue slows down. Therefore, stripe's revenue slows down. For sure, it is not growing faster. You didn't contradict my point at all. > Again: I have data about the entire economy. That data tells a story that's mixed but relatively positive Stripe's revenue growth does indeed slows down. There is no dispute of that. If Stripe was making 1 trillions USD more, they wouldn't have laid off people, obviously. Now I or the founders claim it is because the macro economic is bad. You might contradict this part. Well you have been taunting it for 2 comments now. Can you share your evidence? Or we should continue quibble a bit more first?