3 ms·

It looks like fed should have started QT in 2015.

dragontamer 4y ago
They did. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS QT + higher interest rates clearly started in 2015.
- TinyRick 4y ago
  QT is not raising interest rates, it is reducing the balance sheet: https://www.investopedia.com/quantitative-tightening-6361478 https://www.investopedia.com/quantitative-tightening-6361478 QT quite clearly did not start in any meaningful way in 2015. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    That's not what people "mean" or "care about". The inflation doomers want to pretend that zero-interest rate policies extended too long in the 2010s decade. After the 3rd round of QE in 2014, the Fed began to undo that policy by raising interest rates above 0% in the 2015 to 2016 timeframe. They also were unwinding their balance sheet into 2019, before COVID19 interrupted plans.
    - SantalBlush 4y ago
      >zero-interest rate policies extended too long Not zero-interest rate policies, low-interest rate policies. You're intentionally misrepresenting the position here.
- anonporridge 4y ago
  And then they reversed in 2019 when the stock market started slowing down and Trump freaked out and pressured them to keep the unsustainable growth going, leaving us collectively in a weaker position to respond to the covid crisis.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    The tax cuts that cost us $1 Trillion/year is the bigger issue at that timeframe. The 2019 reversal was... well timed for the wrong reasons. Every economist will tell you that these Fed-moves take over a year (!!!) to kick into effect. Since COVID19 occurred in Nov 2019 into March 2020, the 2019 reversal was actually perfectly timed. For all the wrong reasons mind you, but... we kinda got lucky there.
    - whimsicalism 4y ago
      > Every economist will tell you that these Fed-moves take over a year (!!!) to kick into effect That is just not true.

They did. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS QT + higher interest rates clearly started in 2015.

TinyRick 4y ago
QT is not raising interest rates, it is reducing the balance sheet: https://www.investopedia.com/quantitative-tightening-6361478 https://www.investopedia.com/quantitative-tightening-6361478 QT quite clearly did not start in any meaningful way in 2015. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
- dragontamer 4y ago
  That's not what people "mean" or "care about". The inflation doomers want to pretend that zero-interest rate policies extended too long in the 2010s decade. After the 3rd round of QE in 2014, the Fed began to undo that policy by raising interest rates above 0% in the 2015 to 2016 timeframe. They also were unwinding their balance sheet into 2019, before COVID19 interrupted plans.
  - SantalBlush 4y ago
    >zero-interest rate policies extended too long Not zero-interest rate policies, low-interest rate policies. You're intentionally misrepresenting the position here.
anonporridge 4y ago
And then they reversed in 2019 when the stock market started slowing down and Trump freaked out and pressured them to keep the unsustainable growth going, leaving us collectively in a weaker position to respond to the covid crisis.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  The tax cuts that cost us $1 Trillion/year is the bigger issue at that timeframe. The 2019 reversal was... well timed for the wrong reasons. Every economist will tell you that these Fed-moves take over a year (!!!) to kick into effect. Since COVID19 occurred in Nov 2019 into March 2020, the 2019 reversal was actually perfectly timed. For all the wrong reasons mind you, but... we kinda got lucky there.
  - whimsicalism 4y ago
    > Every economist will tell you that these Fed-moves take over a year (!!!) to kick into effect That is just not true.