4 ms·

I thought climate change was going to make Europe colder.

Maursault 4y ago
The Gulf Stream keeps Europe warm. It is theorized that Global Warming melting Greenland will alter the density of seawater which drives the thermohaline circulation, shutting it down and causing Europe to freeze.[1] This is the plot of The Day After Tomorrow (2004). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation#Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation#Shutd...
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Well, Canada is roughly on same latitude as Europe and Canadians are not walking ice cubes last time I checked on them.
  - iso1631 4y ago
    Daily mean in January in Halifax is -4C (25F). In Bordeaux, same latitude, it's 7C (45F) In Sweden Umeå is 20F in January. In fairbanks it's -20F.
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      And 0 to -5C in Prague. Yes Western Europe might get little bit colder, but Eastern Europe is used on those temperatures and life is not that harsh there.
      - mrDmrTmrJ 4y ago
        I certainly agree the temps are survivable - but the issues is the entire housing stock/built environment is not set up to deal with it. Europe's having huge energy and price concerns right now. Dropping temps by -20 decrees, would be far, far more difficult to adjust to. We can't just snap our fingers and instantly convert every building in a country to a 'passive house' even if we want to :)
      - iso1631 4y ago
        20C drop across the continent. How much food is grown in Canada compared with UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Benelux, Austria, Poland and Ukraine. What will a Canadian climate do for global food production?
lioeters 4y ago
I remember talking to an old hippie at a coffee shop, maybe a decade ago, who told me that the next Ice Age is coming to Europe. He showed me various graphs and statistics on his laptop, showing trends in ocean streams, etc. So far his prediction hasn't come true, but on occasion I hear similar theories from other (perhaps more reputable) sources. Researchers show new Ice Age may begin by 2030 - https://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html https://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html Ocean Current That Keeps Europe Warm Is Weakening - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/ocean-current-keeps-europe-warm-weakening-180968784/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/ocean-current-keep...
lm28469 4y ago
I don't think any models are accurate enough for these kind of crystal bowl predictions. The only thing we know is that it arrives faster than we can adapt without major changes, whichever way it swings will be bad
iso1631 4y ago
Long term climate change is a complex beast. A buteryfly flaps its wings etc. Some models have Europe getting warmer, some colder, some both warming (in summer) and colder (in winter). Europe has a lot of variesty. London and Kyiv are the same latitude, London is 9 degrees warming in Winter and 2 degrees colder in Summer due to the ocean. Halifax, Nova Scotia and Bordeaux are about the same latitude too, and both on the ocean. Halifax is 11 degrees colder in winter and 3 degrees in summer. While the gulf stream pumps heat into Europe, winters will remain milder, but if that changes in some fashion they'll get far colder

The Gulf Stream keeps Europe warm. It is theorized that Global Warming melting Greenland will alter the density of seawater which drives the thermohaline circulation, shutting it down and causing Europe to freeze.[1] This is the plot of The Day After Tomorrow (2004). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation#Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation#Shutd...

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Well, Canada is roughly on same latitude as Europe and Canadians are not walking ice cubes last time I checked on them.
- iso1631 4y ago
  Daily mean in January in Halifax is -4C (25F). In Bordeaux, same latitude, it's 7C (45F) In Sweden Umeå is 20F in January. In fairbanks it's -20F.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    And 0 to -5C in Prague. Yes Western Europe might get little bit colder, but Eastern Europe is used on those temperatures and life is not that harsh there.
    - mrDmrTmrJ 4y ago
      I certainly agree the temps are survivable - but the issues is the entire housing stock/built environment is not set up to deal with it. Europe's having huge energy and price concerns right now. Dropping temps by -20 decrees, would be far, far more difficult to adjust to. We can't just snap our fingers and instantly convert every building in a country to a 'passive house' even if we want to :)
    - iso1631 4y ago
      20C drop across the continent. How much food is grown in Canada compared with UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Benelux, Austria, Poland and Ukraine. What will a Canadian climate do for global food production?

lioeters 4y ago

I remember talking to an old hippie at a coffee shop, maybe a decade ago, who told me that the next Ice Age is coming to Europe. He showed me various graphs and statistics on his laptop, showing trends in ocean streams, etc. So far his prediction hasn't come true, but on occasion I hear similar theories from other (perhaps more reputable) sources. Researchers show new Ice Age may begin by 2030 - https://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html https://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html Ocean Current That Keeps Europe Warm Is Weakening - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/ocean-current-keeps-europe-warm-weakening-180968784/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/ocean-current-keep...

lm28469 4y ago

I don't think any models are accurate enough for these kind of crystal bowl predictions. The only thing we know is that it arrives faster than we can adapt without major changes, whichever way it swings will be bad

iso1631 4y ago

Long term climate change is a complex beast. A buteryfly flaps its wings etc. Some models have Europe getting warmer, some colder, some both warming (in summer) and colder (in winter). Europe has a lot of variesty. London and Kyiv are the same latitude, London is 9 degrees warming in Winter and 2 degrees colder in Summer due to the ocean. Halifax, Nova Scotia and Bordeaux are about the same latitude too, and both on the ocean. Halifax is 11 degrees colder in winter and 3 degrees in summer. While the gulf stream pumps heat into Europe, winters will remain milder, but if that changes in some fashion they'll get far colder