I generally think it's better to start with something even simpler than Prophet, like EMA and ETS. One of the "auto ARIMA" packages in R (Forecast or Fable) co

I generally think it's better to start with something even simpler than Prophet, like EMA and ETS. One of the "auto ARIMA" packages in R (Forecast or Fable) could also be a good choice. However I think Prophet is a good next step from there. It's at least a sensible starting point for your own feature engineering.