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Peter Cotton has atleast a dozen very credible studies/results on prophet vs other timeseries libraries. Before committing to prophet, please check out a few of
by dxbydt 4y ago
Peter Cotton has atleast a dozen very credible studies/results on prophet vs other timeseries libraries. Before committing to prophet, please check out a few of these (all over linkedin). His tone is acerbic because he believes prophet is suboptimal & makes poor forecasts compared to the other contenders. That said, you can ignore the tone, just download the packages & test out the scenarios for yourself. I personally will not use prophet. Like most stat tools in the python ecosystem, it is super easy to deploy & code up, but often inaccurate if you actually care about the results. ofcourse, if its some sales prediction forecast where everything’s pretty much made up & data is sparse/unverifiable, then prophet ftw.
- nerdponx 4y agoI think acerbity is warranted to some extent. We are data scientists. We get paid the big bucks because we have big brains and have the skills and training to use those big brains in order to reason about the work we are doing. Data science has become so easy and accessible nowadays that basically anyone who can write code can fit and use models. That's a great thing in general, but it means that those of us who do this for a living really should hold ourselves to higher standards. Even if you are thoroughly mediocre at your job (like me) and aren't smart enough to come up with something like Prophet on your own, you absolutely do need the ability to reason about the models that you use, and to evaluate their performance correctly.