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Let's be honest: prolonged "financial repression" is effectively soft default of governments. It can work fine in the short term, especially with elevated insta
by fuoqi 4y ago
Let's be honest: prolonged "financial repression" is effectively soft default of governments. It can work fine in the short term, especially with elevated instability abroad (as usual the US benefits quite immensely from it relative to other countries), but try to run economy in such mode for 5-10 years and investors will stop financing government deficits and the system devolves into government simply printing money for itself. It quickly (on historic scale) erodes trust in the financial system, leading to its accelerated degradation. Government's inevitable malinvestments financed by the printed money will only add fuel to the fire.
Just look at Japan. Now remember that it's the world’s largest creditor nation, while the US and many EU countries are huge debtors. In the past foreign governments and investors were happily financing both of them, but now they are calling on the debt and sanctions against Russia only accelerated the process. If you think that in such conditions you will have enough leeway to finance the "capex boom", you probably will be quite disappointed. Japan and the UK are nothing more than the first cracks in the dam, I am more than certain that we will see much bigger events in the near future.
All in all, it seems that we move according to the Ray Dalio's scenario of long-term debt cycles.
- WeylandYutani 4y agoIt has been working for the US for a very long time and will continue to work as long as the US dollar is the world's reserve. Even the Chinese can't stop using it.