It's not clear to me that either China will have abandoned lockdowns nor that the Ukraine war will be over in a year. Like, maybe they will! But it seems plau

It's not clear to me that either China will have abandoned lockdowns nor that the Ukraine war will be over in a year. Like, maybe they will! But it seems plausible that they won't. I agree that neither are likely to last a decade or anything. But I'm not sure what anything we're doing right now is predicated on the idea that they will last a decade.