Two jumps? So 1.5M died? But you are correct, it's cumulative, so without Covid you'd expect max ~100,000 more deaths per year (aging population), so the base

Two jumps? So 1.5M died? But you are correct, it's cumulative, so without Covid you'd expect max ~100,000 more deaths per year (aging population), so the baseline would be 2019 - 2.8M (+0 excess deaths) 2020 - 2.9M (+500k excess deaths) 2021 - 3.0M (+400k excess deaths) So 900k.