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Author here. Thanks for the comment. My intent wasn't really to tease apart much or even to shed any light on statistics, but just to persuade the reader that t

Author here. Thanks for the comment. My intent wasn't really to tease apart much or even to shed any light on statistics, but just to persuade the reader that this is both a critical area for startups and an area where our intuition is for shit. I'd like to hear more about this. Anybody else with applied knowledge out there? Seems to me there are two problems here. The first is that we live in a world with lots of data yet little information. Understanding the limits of what we can know is important. (And I hope it didn't all come down to "correlation does not equal causation" for you. The Monty Hall problem is definitely not an example of that) The second thing is taking the pre-existing math and applying it in a useful manner. The second problem is probably much more interesting to this crowd, but I was concerned that most of us (myself included) don't recognize the first problem to the degree we should. The essay actually began as a rant against trusting too much in aggregate numbers, but at the end I was left with having to make a recommendation, and the best I could come up with -- the most practical solution that is easily explainable and implementable -- is A/B testing. Are there other options that people are using?

jcr 15y ago
> Out of all the startup skills I've studied, this one -- effectively inferring intent from reams of numbers -- is probably the most difficult. "There are only two types of people in this world; those who can extrapolate from incomplete information." It's a humorous way to get the same point across. It's particularly fun to say in person during a discussion, then just stop speaking and wait for the point to hit home. The more interesting question is why human beings get a warm, fuzzy feeling when they extrapolate from incomplete information (or extrapolate from incorrect information, or extrapolate incorrectly from correct information)? I haven't bothered to count them all, but there are plenty of myths about some deity dragging something bright or burning across the sky to explain the rising and setting of the sun.

jcr 15y ago

> Out of all the startup skills I've studied, this one -- effectively inferring intent from reams of numbers -- is probably the most difficult. "There are only two types of people in this world; those who can extrapolate from incomplete information." It's a humorous way to get the same point across. It's particularly fun to say in person during a discussion, then just stop speaking and wait for the point to hit home. The more interesting question is why human beings get a warm, fuzzy feeling when they extrapolate from incomplete information (or extrapolate from incorrect information, or extrapolate incorrectly from correct information)? I haven't bothered to count them all, but there are plenty of myths about some deity dragging something bright or burning across the sky to explain the rising and setting of the sun.