It's also a statistical trick because so few people die before 64 (even more so for e.g. 49). This table [1] shows that someone who makes it to 20 only has a 2

It's also a statistical trick because so few people die before 64 (even more so for e.g. 49). This table [1] shows that someone who makes it to 20 only has a 2% chance of dying before 64. This means eliminating that 1/8 of deaths due to alcohol probably only results in something like 0.1 QALY. The alcohol result is a corollary of the fact that people who die between ages 20-50 usually die in graphic accidents versus "natural causes" like heart attack, stroke, that are actually the unconditional largest causes of death. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age-and-sex-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age...