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The lure of access to the Chinese market has been used and western leaders now realize it's a lie. The one sided cooperation with China is wisely being ended, i

The lure of access to the Chinese market has been used and western leaders now realize it's a lie. The one sided cooperation with China is wisely being ended, if the Chinese government wants any technology or resource going forward it will have to be completely grown from within. But here's the kicker, why would any Chinese citizen go and start a company? All it means is you have a massive target on your back for one of the political elite to swoop in and take what you've built. Why would you work towards building a massive company like Jack Ma did when the reward is being tortured and disappeared when you step slightly out of line? So the best and most ambitious minds in China will go into politics or leave the country. Throw in the coming demographic collapse I think China's peak is behind us.

njdvndsjkvn 4y ago
>China's peak is behind us. Peak growth rate yes; total peak no. China failed to emulate Japan, Taiwan and South Korea's rapid acceleration. They will continue to grow at a faster rate than already wealthy nations but not at double digit speed and nowhere near the speed of Japan. It took Japan 30 years to go from poor to second largest economy. China "opened" in ~1980 and has failed to come close to that rate in 40 years. And as you say there is a time limit on rapid growth because it slows down as the country ages. China is aging too fast to maintain double digit growth which it has already lost for some years now IIRC.
dirtyid 4y ago
PRC still huge market for many multinationals, access is there for those who play ball. If anything PRC willing to reserve market share for foreign companies to maintain relations, i.e. no reason Nokia/Ericsson should have 5g contracts in PRC but they do. As for PRC talent, no bamboo ceiling and increasing mccarthyism targetting PRC individuals big perk. Most people are happy being mere millionaires than billionaires. And even billionaires fine if you don't go full retard like Ma and try to challenge state regulators. Best of PRC minds are staying in PRC, this isn't the 80s-00s when PRC was sending their best as state initiave to be educated abroad, most of the students going to west now are those with some English proficieny but can't hack it in gaokao. There's a reason why more and more sea turtles are returning to PRC for better prospects. Or why US has to literally sanction Chinese Americans from working in PRC semi. Plus PRC high skill demographic divident, the kind that drives innovation + high tech, high value development is just starting. The greatest pool of high end talent in human history is being churned out as we speak despite broader demographic decline that only makes PRC more resource independant. PRC won't peak for another 20 years, by then they will likely have sufficiently caught up in most advanced sectors to start eating the west's lunch. The convergence will be PRC closing gap which will erode western dominance by denying PRC market and wrestling shares from emerging economies fine with cheap PRC exports at the expense of west.
- friedman23 4y ago
  > Most people are happy being mere millionaires than billionaires It's not about money. Creating a new technology or business is like giving birth and if you are based in China, Xi and his friends can come and rip the baby out of your crib. It doesn't matter how successful or high profile you are, some communist party leader can and will rape you, figuratively and literally (See Peng Shuai).
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    Of course it's about money. People take chance if reward offsets. And it's easy money if business aligns with state interests, with Ma being properly fucked over after being warned many times when his ponzi lending proposal scheme. Because prospect of stupid amount money made his brain go dumb dumb and think it was fine challenging regulators. See how PRC hard tech jobs that 5year proposal is prioritizing is seeing explosion in compensation and opportunities when cracked down sectors of soft sci aren't. In which case Xi and his friends come over and give you personal handjobs along with bags of of state subsidies. Or as if sexual harassment meaningfully impacts competitiveness US business enviroment. Or that sports star is a business leader now? That's like saying kpop / jp idols / hollywood will fail because you can fuck your way to success. As if fucking way to top is CCP exclusive trick. The fact of the matter remains, more high skilled PRC nationals are staying or returning to PRC than ever to work in well compensated PRC industries where there aren't bamboo ceilings and with recent developments like China initiative, less targetted political prosecution. At least in PRC you get fucked for doing too well, and raped to get ahead, vs in US where PRC nationals are increasingly being fucked and kept down due to whims of domestic politics. Again, PRC is so alluring for Chinese Americans that US has to literally sanction and start kangaroo courts to scare folks from working in China.

njdvndsjkvn 4y ago

>China's peak is behind us. Peak growth rate yes; total peak no. China failed to emulate Japan, Taiwan and South Korea's rapid acceleration. They will continue to grow at a faster rate than already wealthy nations but not at double digit speed and nowhere near the speed of Japan. It took Japan 30 years to go from poor to second largest economy. China "opened" in ~1980 and has failed to come close to that rate in 40 years. And as you say there is a time limit on rapid growth because it slows down as the country ages. China is aging too fast to maintain double digit growth which it has already lost for some years now IIRC.

dirtyid 4y ago

PRC still huge market for many multinationals, access is there for those who play ball. If anything PRC willing to reserve market share for foreign companies to maintain relations, i.e. no reason Nokia/Ericsson should have 5g contracts in PRC but they do. As for PRC talent, no bamboo ceiling and increasing mccarthyism targetting PRC individuals big perk. Most people are happy being mere millionaires than billionaires. And even billionaires fine if you don't go full retard like Ma and try to challenge state regulators. Best of PRC minds are staying in PRC, this isn't the 80s-00s when PRC was sending their best as state initiave to be educated abroad, most of the students going to west now are those with some English proficieny but can't hack it in gaokao. There's a reason why more and more sea turtles are returning to PRC for better prospects. Or why US has to literally sanction Chinese Americans from working in PRC semi. Plus PRC high skill demographic divident, the kind that drives innovation + high tech, high value development is just starting. The greatest pool of high end talent in human history is being churned out as we speak despite broader demographic decline that only makes PRC more resource independant. PRC won't peak for another 20 years, by then they will likely have sufficiently caught up in most advanced sectors to start eating the west's lunch. The convergence will be PRC closing gap which will erode western dominance by denying PRC market and wrestling shares from emerging economies fine with cheap PRC exports at the expense of west.

friedman23 4y ago
> Most people are happy being mere millionaires than billionaires It's not about money. Creating a new technology or business is like giving birth and if you are based in China, Xi and his friends can come and rip the baby out of your crib. It doesn't matter how successful or high profile you are, some communist party leader can and will rape you, figuratively and literally (See Peng Shuai).
- dirtyid 4y ago
  Of course it's about money. People take chance if reward offsets. And it's easy money if business aligns with state interests, with Ma being properly fucked over after being warned many times when his ponzi lending proposal scheme. Because prospect of stupid amount money made his brain go dumb dumb and think it was fine challenging regulators. See how PRC hard tech jobs that 5year proposal is prioritizing is seeing explosion in compensation and opportunities when cracked down sectors of soft sci aren't. In which case Xi and his friends come over and give you personal handjobs along with bags of of state subsidies. Or as if sexual harassment meaningfully impacts competitiveness US business enviroment. Or that sports star is a business leader now? That's like saying kpop / jp idols / hollywood will fail because you can fuck your way to success. As if fucking way to top is CCP exclusive trick. The fact of the matter remains, more high skilled PRC nationals are staying or returning to PRC than ever to work in well compensated PRC industries where there aren't bamboo ceilings and with recent developments like China initiative, less targetted political prosecution. At least in PRC you get fucked for doing too well, and raped to get ahead, vs in US where PRC nationals are increasingly being fucked and kept down due to whims of domestic politics. Again, PRC is so alluring for Chinese Americans that US has to literally sanction and start kangaroo courts to scare folks from working in China.