3 ms·
Depends on timing. ICBMs can only reach an altitude of about 1300km and are not designed to hit moving targets in space anyways, so if an asteroid is going to h
by jjk166 4y ago
Depends on timing. ICBMs can only reach an altitude of about 1300km and are not designed to hit moving targets in space anyways, so if an asteroid is going to hit us in the next few days we're screwed.
However implementing a system to defend against asteroids even with short notice is feasible. We can make rockets much larger than ICBMs and put them on standby for planetary defense. You'd presumably put appropriate sensors and maneuvering thrusters for getting to the approrpiate position near or on the target, akin to the interceptors used in missile defense. Interceptors would have a dedicated 3rd stage like the Centaur to launch them on trajectories away from Earth - the further away the interception the smaller the necessary deflection. Ideally you'd catch it early and start the deflection so far away that a kinetic impactor or even just the craft's gravitation would nudge it to a safe course, but for short notice you need to go nuclear.
Breaking up an asteroid into smaller pieces with a nuke is possible, especially for the subset of asteroids which are basically loosely held together piles of gravel. Some people think this is a bad idea as instead of 1 big rock to deal with now you have lots of little rocks that are also radioactive, but that actually is a much preferable situation. The ability of objects to pass through the atmosphere is dependent on their diameter, lots of small rocks will burn up harmlessly while a single big one will impact. The radioactivity from the nuke would be spread out extremely dilute, and specific nuclear weapon designs which minimize neutron activation can keep the radioactivity very low. A more serious concern is that you don't know the trajectories of the resulting fragments, some of which might still be dangerous, and thus it would be a very bad idea to destroy it before impact was a certainty, but then waiting until the last minute to stop it is a major risk in itself.
More safe would be to detonate the nuclear device near the asteroid. This would vaporize a thin layer of the surface of the asteroid in line of sight of the explosion, sending it flying off into space at extremely high velocity and propelling the asteroid equally in the opposite direction. There are two major advantages to this approach: it will work against targets regardless of their composition and internal structure (very beneficial if we don't have time to study the asteroid ahead of time) and the method can be done repeatedly to the same target - we could launch dozens of independent interceptors and just keep detonating them one by one until we get the desired result. While the goal is to have the asteroid not impact at all, and thus radioactivity is even less of a concern, this option does produce even less radioactivity than blowing up the asteroid. From a strictly technical perspective this option is pretty much a no brainer, but obviously building a battery of dozens of nuclear missiles is politically problematic.
- shagie 4y agoA sibling comment of mine references https://www.adrc.iastate.edu/files/2012/09/IAC-09.C1.3.1.pdf https://www.adrc.iastate.edu/files/2012/09/IAC-09.C1.3.1.pdf Section 6.1 is on nuclear stand off explosions. > The nuclear standoff explosions require an optimal standoff distance for a maximum velocity change of a target as- teroid. Therefore, we have to determine how close the nuclear explosion must be to effectively change the or- bital trajectories of asteroids of different types, sizes, and shapes. The precise outcome of a NEO deflection at- tempt using a nuclear standoff explosion is dependent on myriad variables. Shape and composition of the tar- get NEO are critical factors. Section 6.2 is on kinetic impacters... > A somewhat futuristic, solar sailing mission concept utilizing a 160-m solar sail to deliver a 150-kg kinetic impactor into a heliocentric retrograde orbit was studied in [25-28]. Such kinetic impactors will result in a head- on collision with a target asteroid at its perihelion (as illustrated in Fig. 1), thus increasing its impact velocity to at least 70 km/s. The NEAR Shoemaker study of as- teroid Mathilde and the Japanese Hayabusa mission for exploring the asteroid Itokawa suggest that many aster- oids are essentially “rubble piles.” Consequently, a practical concern of any impulsive approaches employing kinetic impactors or nuclear explosions is the risk that such high-energy deflection attempts could result in the frag- mentation of NEOs, which could substantially increase the damage upon Earth impact. And then, section 6.3 is a fun one: Gravitational Binding Energy > the disruption energy per unit asteroid mass is predicted to be 150 J/kg for strength-dominated asteroids. This indicates that a strength-dominated, 200-m asteroid would not be disrupted by a 150-kg impactor at a high impact velocity of 70 km/s. Also in Ref. 5 (pp. 135-136), the energy (per unit asteroid mass) required for both disruption and dispersion of a 1-km asteroid is predicted to be 5 kJ/kg. Thus, the feasibility of the most kinetic-impact approaches for either disrupting or deflecting an incoming NEO depends on its size and composition (e.g., solid body, porous rubble pile, etc.), as well as the time available to change its orbit. These are from 2012, and we've had a decade more experience (and a mission to try it out) since then... but it's interesting to look at and the math in the paper doesn't change.
- LargoLasskhyfv 4y agoLots of small rocks can cause a 'heat pulse' over wide areas on atmospheric entry.