Federation isn't going to be everyone moving to a decentralised platform like Mastadon. It's going to be groups segregating to different platforms based on thei

Federation isn't going to be everyone moving to a decentralised platform like Mastadon. It's going to be groups segregating to different platforms based on their interests and values. Whether or not that network of things becomes interconnected, not clear, maybe not. We'll see some churn from Twitter but the majority of people with 10k+ followers will stay. Every engineer feels they could build a Twitter alternative, purely on a technical basis, but to actually draw a community there, that's the harder part. What Jack is trying to do with Bluesky is more interesting, an actual protocol as opposed to another platform, but again not clear that will work out either. SMTP was truly the greatest communication protocol of all time, and then HTTP being an information protocol somehow subsumed that for social purposes. If we just assume public social is Twitter, Facebook, etc, then private social might end up being some smaller niche systems and then we may end up with some alternative new protocol for real time communication. Something dead simple is likely to beat out the wholly thought through in the beginning because clients could be easily implemented for it.