4 ms·

chinese population is ~1.4 billion https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vaccine https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vacci.

chinese population is ~1.4 billion https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vaccine https://health-study.joinzoe.com/post/risk-covid-after-vacci... >We saw that 2,394 and 187 people tested positive for COVID-19 more than two >weeks after their first and second jabs, respectively, with the chances of ?>becoming infected falling as time passed. >That’s the equivalent of one in 500 (0.2%) and one in 3,333 (0.03%) 1,400,000,000 x 0.002 = 2,800,000 (Note I actually misinterpretted this as applying to 2 different vaccines, of which I chose the least effective, whereas this is after just 1 jab.) based on double jab figures the figure would be around 0.5 million. >Reassuringly, only 104 people in the vaccinated group who tested positive for COVID-19 ended up in hospital (one in 2,500 or 0.04%). 1,400,000,000 x 0.0004 = 560,000 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/... >Estimates of the proportion of people who had COVID-19 that go on to >experience post-COVID conditions can vary: >13.3% at one month or longer after infection >2.5% at three months or longer, based on self-reporting >More than 30% at 6 months among patients who were hospitalized 2,800,000 x 0.025 = 70,000 (although this is based on the single jabbed figure, fully jabbed the figure would be 1400. >when it will be 100s of millions since no vaccine prevent spread Are you saying the vaccine doesn't stop you getting covid? that is false. It doesn't stop it 100% but it is significant, significant enough that outbreaks can die off on their own. Further i'm not sure if thats even relevant, the issue is how many it kills. its easy to get a cold, you don't need to worry about getting a cold because that won't kill you. so the relevant factor is how good is the vaccine at preventing major illness and hospitalisation. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1019992/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_38.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... vaccines lower risk of infection by 60% - 80% vaccines lower the risk of symptomatic disease by 65% - 90% vaccines lower risk of hospitalisation by 90% vaccines lower risk of death by over 90%

dirtyid 4y ago
Rather than doing napkin math using sources like joinzoe, i.e. self report (app) on population with high natural immunity due to uncontrolled spread, with great health care infra, and low population density - many factors why that's a bad place to start your reason chain - here's earlier study by epidemologists who are familiar with PRC conditions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01855-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01855-7 > lift such measures could see more than 112 million symptomatic cases of Covid-19, five million hospitalisations, and 1.55 million deaths. There's also later analysis that extrapolates with TW/SKR numbers after they began living with covid with IIRC greater deaths. These are fellow East Asian examples with more simliar conditions than PRC except they have much better per capita health care infra. >relevant factor is how good is the vaccine at preventing major illness and hospitalisation. Yes and the relevant factor to that relevant factor is PRC doesn't have the ICU beds / hospital infra per capita to absorb even vaxed spread. Most of country is old and underdeveloped and "crushing the curve" is still the best path. Vax prevents severe cases but at PRC scale and infectiousness of omicron, in dense urban enviroments during colder seasons, that's still more symptomatic severe cases than the medical system can handle. >We find that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave that would result in exceeding critical care capacity with a projected intensive care unit peak demand of 15.6 times the existing capacity https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/lifting-zero-covid-policies-in-china-could-risk-16m-deaths-says-study https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/lifting-zero-c... That's the crux of the issue, PRC is a developing country with low hospital beds per capita that demographically skews old (and antivax). These factors means PRC is better off with no vaccines and zero covid than vaccines and living with covid until zero covid or some other factor makes zero covid unsustainble.

dirtyid 4y ago

Rather than doing napkin math using sources like joinzoe, i.e. self report (app) on population with high natural immunity due to uncontrolled spread, with great health care infra, and low population density - many factors why that's a bad place to start your reason chain - here's earlier study by epidemologists who are familiar with PRC conditions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01855-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01855-7 > lift such measures could see more than 112 million symptomatic cases of Covid-19, five million hospitalisations, and 1.55 million deaths. There's also later analysis that extrapolates with TW/SKR numbers after they began living with covid with IIRC greater deaths. These are fellow East Asian examples with more simliar conditions than PRC except they have much better per capita health care infra. >relevant factor is how good is the vaccine at preventing major illness and hospitalisation. Yes and the relevant factor to that relevant factor is PRC doesn't have the ICU beds / hospital infra per capita to absorb even vaxed spread. Most of country is old and underdeveloped and "crushing the curve" is still the best path. Vax prevents severe cases but at PRC scale and infectiousness of omicron, in dense urban enviroments during colder seasons, that's still more symptomatic severe cases than the medical system can handle. >We find that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave that would result in exceeding critical care capacity with a projected intensive care unit peak demand of 15.6 times the existing capacity https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/lifting-zero-covid-policies-in-china-could-risk-16m-deaths-says-study https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/lifting-zero-c... That's the crux of the issue, PRC is a developing country with low hospital beds per capita that demographically skews old (and antivax). These factors means PRC is better off with no vaccines and zero covid than vaccines and living with covid until zero covid or some other factor makes zero covid unsustainble.