4 ms·

This is a weird one. On one hand the US massively over spends on "military spending", partly because it over spends and partly because a whole bunch of weird (

This is a weird one. On one hand the US massively over spends on "military spending", partly because it over spends and partly because a whole bunch of weird (corp) welfare and jobs programs (and things like research too) are incorrectly classed as military spending. But also the US has way way too high a debt level for no actual reason (just under taxing special groups, no real wartime costs, no amazing jump forwards on infrastructure or social capital etc). What's not to hate?

ISL 4y ago
Functionally, the US has such a huge debt level because borrowing costs were so low for more than a decade. Rising debt payments are the signal that will, on decadal scales, force the US to pare back borrowing and raise taxes. (Raising taxes will probably also slow the economy, encouraging the Fed to lower interest rates, and the cycles cycle anew...)
- LatteLazy 4y ago
  I think for other countries that would be very and rapidly true. I wonder how it will be for the US. It's one force for sure, but I think the US (with it's economic size and "credit history" and high demand for USD) will be able to ignore it for quite a while...
bombcar 4y ago
Arguably the US sells so much debt because there's a hot market for it; the question is will it be a slow cooldown as that market begins to go away, or will it be a sudden shock with all the associated fun? You could argue that the massively inflated military budget is why we can sell so much debt, but any simplistic version of the story is likely to be wrong in key details.
smileysteve 4y ago
The US was in multiple fronts from 2001-2022, and estimates are that direct costs from 1 of those fronts (Afghanistan) is 8% of the total debt. Almost ⅓ of the total US debt is the result of Covid Spending and Tax cuts in the last 5 years. (Social capital)
- elil17 4y ago
  We are currently fighting five wars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_the_Maghreb_(2002%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_the_Maghreb_(200... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom_%E2%80%93_Horn_of_Africa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom_%E2... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_military_intervention_in_Somalia_(2007%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_military_intervention... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_t... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%9... We were fighting two more prior to the Biden presidency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_Iraq_(2014%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_I... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80... We're also paying for the war in Ukraine and we're still paying the costs of previous wars in the form of mass illness (both physical and mental) experienced by our veterans.
  - checkyoursudo 4y ago
    Did the US ever sign a peace treaty with North Korea? Maybe no fighting at the moment, but a war is a war!
    - elil17 4y ago
      There was an armistice. The wars I listed are one's where the US is currently dedicating resources (e.g. drones) to an armed conflict.
  - thomastjeffery 4y ago
    > and we're still paying the costs of previous wars in the form of mass illness (both physical and mental) experienced by our veterans. we aren't even really paying that - at least not at the extent we should be.
- LatteLazy 4y ago
keneda7 4y ago
The US massively over spends pretty much everywhere. Healthcare? Yup. Space? Yup. Government salaries? Yup. New toilets? Yup. Propaganda? Yup. I'm not even touching on the massive amount of fraud our handouts have or all the no bid government contracts given out to donors. Take out military over spending (~15% of the budget) and you still have massive over spending in ~85% of our budget. We need to tackle to massive over spending at its root (our elected and non elected government officials) not at a symptom of the root issue (military over spending). Look at it like this. If we look at everything, over spending would be reduced in our entire budget. If we just focus on military overspending, over spending would be reduced in 14% of our budget. But as nothing else is reduced there will be no real change. Slowly overtime the over spending will creep right back into the military. There is no logical argument to be made for only targeting military overspending. It makes a good political talking point but that is about it.

ISL 4y ago

Functionally, the US has such a huge debt level because borrowing costs were so low for more than a decade. Rising debt payments are the signal that will, on decadal scales, force the US to pare back borrowing and raise taxes. (Raising taxes will probably also slow the economy, encouraging the Fed to lower interest rates, and the cycles cycle anew...)

LatteLazy 4y ago
I think for other countries that would be very and rapidly true. I wonder how it will be for the US. It's one force for sure, but I think the US (with it's economic size and "credit history" and high demand for USD) will be able to ignore it for quite a while...

bombcar 4y ago

Arguably the US sells so much debt because there's a hot market for it; the question is will it be a slow cooldown as that market begins to go away, or will it be a sudden shock with all the associated fun? You could argue that the massively inflated military budget is why we can sell so much debt, but any simplistic version of the story is likely to be wrong in key details.

smileysteve 4y ago

The US was in multiple fronts from 2001-2022, and estimates are that direct costs from 1 of those fronts (Afghanistan) is 8% of the total debt. Almost ⅓ of the total US debt is the result of Covid Spending and Tax cuts in the last 5 years. (Social capital)

elil17 4y ago
We are currently fighting five wars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_the_Maghreb_(2002%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_the_Maghreb_(200... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom_%E2%80%93_Horn_of_Africa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom_%E2... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_military_intervention_in_Somalia_(2007%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_military_intervention... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_t... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%9... We were fighting two more prior to the Biden presidency: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_Iraq_(2014%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_I... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80... We're also paying for the war in Ukraine and we're still paying the costs of previous wars in the form of mass illness (both physical and mental) experienced by our veterans.
- checkyoursudo 4y ago
  Did the US ever sign a peace treaty with North Korea? Maybe no fighting at the moment, but a war is a war!
  - elil17 4y ago
    There was an armistice. The wars I listed are one's where the US is currently dedicating resources (e.g. drones) to an armed conflict.
- thomastjeffery 4y ago
  > and we're still paying the costs of previous wars in the form of mass illness (both physical and mental) experienced by our veterans. we aren't even really paying that - at least not at the extent we should be.
LatteLazy 4y ago

keneda7 4y ago

The US massively over spends pretty much everywhere. Healthcare? Yup. Space? Yup. Government salaries? Yup. New toilets? Yup. Propaganda? Yup. I'm not even touching on the massive amount of fraud our handouts have or all the no bid government contracts given out to donors. Take out military over spending (~15% of the budget) and you still have massive over spending in ~85% of our budget. We need to tackle to massive over spending at its root (our elected and non elected government officials) not at a symptom of the root issue (military over spending). Look at it like this. If we look at everything, over spending would be reduced in our entire budget. If we just focus on military overspending, over spending would be reduced in 14% of our budget. But as nothing else is reduced there will be no real change. Slowly overtime the over spending will creep right back into the military. There is no logical argument to be made for only targeting military overspending. It makes a good political talking point but that is about it.