4 ms·

> I wonder what China is trying to achieve here. From reading scientific papers about the occurrence of complications in people who've had Covid twice, it look

by pygy_ 4y ago

> I wonder what China is trying to achieve here. From reading scientific papers about the occurrence of complications in people who've had Covid twice, it looks like the virus inflicts long-lasting damage to the body, even if it isn't readily apparent. People how have Covid twice have a higher rate of complication the second time around (including post-Covid syndrome a.k.a. long covid). There are no reasons to think that people in places where "living with Covid" is a thing really are rotting with it. Vaccines do little to protect against this. In Europe, the cumulative incidence of confirmed infections is nearing 50% of the population (and ~30% in the US). In China, that number is less than 1%. Major caveat regarding the reasoning above, the studies were carried before omicron emerged. These variants have fewer complications, not sure how this will compound. It is possible that the drop in productivity in the US that's been reported this week (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33405389 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33405389) is in part driven by lower mental acuity or immune system performance. The decline may not be large enough to be noticeable on a day to day basis, yet show up in aggregate measurements. Xi may be playing the long game here. If the above holds, even if Covid ends up endemic in China after a while, its workers would have an edge on the rest of the world. ———— https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1749502/v1 https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1749502/v1 (it's only a preprint, but third party experts vouch for it: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/05/health/covid-reinfection-risk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/05/health/covid-reinfection-...) I've read an earlier paper on the topic, but I can't find it right now.

raxxorraxor 4y ago
> In China, that number is less than 1%. If you can believe that number. If I had Covid in China I would do everything to keep that a secret. The drop in productivity is a fake as it is still higher than in 2010 before Covid. China already has an edge by numbers alone. Total productivity is the main factor here.
- pygy_ 4y ago
  Point 1 is reasonable, point 3 arguable, but point 2 is way off.. > The drop in productivity is a fake as it is still higher than in 2010 before Covid. Could it be that we made technological progress in the mean time? The drop definitely isn't fake (https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-and-costs/nonfarm-business-sector-productivity-percent-change.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-and-costs/nonfarm-bu..., look at the blue line), and a stark break from a consistent increase in productivity that's been ongoing for decades with few exceptions (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable?tab=chart https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-ho...).
  - raxxorraxor 4y ago
    Well, if the noise of productivity seems to allow +10% year-to-year, it is the same in the other direction. I simply don't believe the prognosis. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productivity-down-employers-worried-recession/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productiv... This is a typical media filler story. Textual bullshit. Reality was probably too boring again.
    - pygy_ 4y ago
      It's not year-to-year noise, it's quarter-to-quarter, and there's a seasonal pattern that vanishes if you do year-on-year quarter comparison (see the solid blue line in the bls.gov chart). The WaPo article only shows the dotted line data from the BLS graph, which is far noisier, but shows two consecutive quarters of decline, which is unusual too.
pygy_ 4y ago
I'll add that, since posting this, I've discovered this video (https://twitter.com/YanzhongHuang/status/1586537964267798530 https://twitter.com/YanzhongHuang/status/1586537964267798530) that predates my post, where a Chinese businessman makes the same argument. I had no idea this was openly discussed over there (though I suppose I should have guessed it was).

by pygy_ 4y ago

raxxorraxor 4y ago

> In China, that number is less than 1%. If you can believe that number. If I had Covid in China I would do everything to keep that a secret. The drop in productivity is a fake as it is still higher than in 2010 before Covid. China already has an edge by numbers alone. Total productivity is the main factor here.

pygy_ 4y ago
Point 1 is reasonable, point 3 arguable, but point 2 is way off.. > The drop in productivity is a fake as it is still higher than in 2010 before Covid. Could it be that we made technological progress in the mean time? The drop definitely isn't fake (https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-and-costs/nonfarm-business-sector-productivity-percent-change.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/productivity-and-costs/nonfarm-bu..., look at the blue line), and a stark break from a consistent increase in productivity that's been ongoing for decades with few exceptions (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable?tab=chart https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-ho...).
- raxxorraxor 4y ago
  Well, if the noise of productivity seems to allow +10% year-to-year, it is the same in the other direction. I simply don't believe the prognosis. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productivity-down-employers-worried-recession/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productiv... This is a typical media filler story. Textual bullshit. Reality was probably too boring again.
  - pygy_ 4y ago
    It's not year-to-year noise, it's quarter-to-quarter, and there's a seasonal pattern that vanishes if you do year-on-year quarter comparison (see the solid blue line in the bls.gov chart). The WaPo article only shows the dotted line data from the BLS graph, which is far noisier, but shows two consecutive quarters of decline, which is unusual too.

pygy_ 4y ago

I'll add that, since posting this, I've discovered this video (https://twitter.com/YanzhongHuang/status/1586537964267798530 https://twitter.com/YanzhongHuang/status/1586537964267798530) that predates my post, where a Chinese businessman makes the same argument. I had no idea this was openly discussed over there (though I suppose I should have guessed it was).