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One common explanation is that inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's say, you have $1000 today that can buy you a certain gadget. You know that you won
by matrix_overload 4y ago
One common explanation is that inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Let's say, you have $1000 today that can buy you a certain gadget. You know that you won't need it until the next year, but in a year that same gadget will cost $1200 due to inflation. So you buy it right now for $1000, even though you could get by for another year. This increases the amount of money bidding for a limited supply of gadgets, so the seller can easily rise the price to $1100 right away, speeding up inflation even further.
To combat this, the interest rate is raised to the point where you could put your $1000 to the bank, get $1200 in a year, and still buy that gadget. Fewer people are competing for it right now, so if the seller raises the asking price for $1100, many people would rather overpay right away.
In reality, we have been printing money like crazy ever since 2008 [0], but rather than immediately raising the price of bread and beef, it went into speculative investments (VC bubble, crypto), assets (housing), bullshit jobs (exponentially growing number of bureaucrat jobs), etc. Now the Ukrainian war and Chinese COVID policies have disrupted some supply chain mechanisms that worked out of inertia, and it turns out we might have killed the mechanisms that would otherwise kick in and redistribute the weight. Nobody wants to step up and produce more stuff - we got too used that we can just print more money and have someone else accept is for payment. Except now we are running out of eager participants, so more and more money is being pulled out of that hip dog spa startup and is bidding up the prices of bread and rice.
I don't think the rates will fix the inflation overnight, but they may start a long and painful process of incentivizing more productive work, rather than asking for a bailout in the loudest way. And we desperately need to do this because just printing more money without "printing" more oil, chips, foods and everything else will inevitably result in Venezuela-style hyperinflation, destroying the rest of the economy. You do not want to live through it, really.
[0] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0
- nyokodo 4y ago> Nobody wants to step up and produce more stuff Except they are, at least in North America. The onshoring, reshoring, and nearshoring of production is absolutely massive in size and scope. [1] 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/factory-jobs-workers-rebound.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/factory-jobs-wor...
- bfung 4y agoBut a little too late still. It's not nearly massive enough -- even the most crude mental exercise: China has ~4x the population of the US, so the US needs to 4x current onshore output levels while keeping prices low to meet demand to prevent inflation.
- nyokodo 4y ago> the US needs to 4x current onshore output levels No it doesn’t. Firstly, it’s not just the US but Mexico and Canada also which is another roughly 170 million people. Secondly, the North American system only needs to produce enough for itself and perhaps its allies. Supporting the whole globe in the way China does is not going to happen, i.e. in a (even by US standards) hyper-financed fashion while ignoring profit and basic sustainability.
- jjtheblunt 4y agoThat article specifically says that onshoring, reshoring, and nearshoring are NOT what is going on. I mean it's the second paragraph of the article. (Also, it's the NYT, which famously has been criticized, lost readership, and responded recently by replacing editorial staff, for trending towards conspicuous Democratic Party propaganda, in the same way Fox News correlates with Republican Party propaganda. Both situations quite sad.)
- nyokodo 4y agoYou're right about the article not being about onshoring etc, I linked to the wrong one and now I can't edit it. Anyway, the data is out there. No comment on the political biases of the media.
- jjtheblunt 4y agoYeah the media is full of biases all over. It's disappointingly challenging to just get straight data!