Even if the actual EV (money you spend vs. money ultimately in your bank account) were positive, it still might be a bad bet. If you look at it as an investmen

Even if the actual EV (money you spend vs. money ultimately in your bank account) were positive, it still might be a bad bet. If you look at it as an investment, at the very least you have to take into consideration risk and opportunity costs. The risk is enormous, to get 50/50 odds you would need to invest 400 Million. Imagine what else you could do with that money instead, without it being a 50% chance of loosing everything.