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"Licensing" is a strong word when applied to China. I'm pretty sure they have advanced a lot and may have surpassed Russian technology in some areas. As far as

"Licensing" is a strong word when applied to China. I'm pretty sure they have advanced a lot and may have surpassed Russian technology in some areas. As far as I understand it, they have more diverse launch vehicles, for example. Hard to compare what constitutes "better", as long as it works. I don't think they are as cost-efficient as SpaceX or even Atlas and Ariane systems.

nordsieck 4y ago
> I don't think they are as cost-efficient as SpaceX or even Atlas and Ariane systems. It seems unlikely anyone is as cost-efficient as Falcon 9 with reuse. It appears to me, as an outsider, that Atlas and Ariane are 4-5 times as expensive to operate. There is probably plenty of room for China to operate more efficiently than that. Especially with their launch volume, which is second only to SpaceX.
- bayesian_horse 4y ago
  China is not a high-tech nation. There is a thin patina of bling-bling but underneath they have big trouble between corruption and nobody else trusting them. China has lots of money (for now...) so they can throw a lot of resources at the problem. In China, quick public successes always take precedence over doing it right.
  - FooBarWidget 4y ago
    Your view of China is 10 years behind reality. Corruption was a huge problem, it is still somewhat of a problem, but corruption has reduced significantly and continues to reduce. As for "nobody else trusting them": based on what evidence? Foreign investment into China is at an all-time high. Recent research has shown that while sentiments about China has become much more negative in the west (and its allies such as South Korea and Japan), sentiment in the rest of the world — accounting for 80% of humanity — has become much more positive. > In China, quick public successes always take precedence over doing it right. I'd like to see some evidence for this huge, unnuanced claim. Of course they have an incentive to look good. So do companies all over the world. But to claim that that's all they do is to ignore the elephant in the room, namely 40 years of growth in prosperity that's unprecedented in human history.
    - AlchemistCamp 4y ago
      > sentiment in the rest of the world — accounting for 80% of humanity — has become much more positive. India is 1/6 of the world's population and its media sentiment towards China has been trending sharply downwards over the past few years.
      - FooBarWidget 4y ago
        You can read the Cambridge University research yourself: https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-divided/ https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-... Check out figure 15 for South Asia's sentiment on China.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      The ISS collaborators have banned Chinese astronauts. The system is a dictatorship, Xi Jinping has a bigger personality course than Mao. The real estate industry is a mess, mostly because of corruption. "Tofu" projects are rampant. The High Speed rail is too expensive and has the same "Tofu" construction problem (=corruption). Corruption is still a major problem and there is no signs it has gotten better. African Swine Flu as an example can't be contained because that would need unbribeable enforcement. No-Covid only works (in the enforcement sense) because of draconian penalties. Cronyism is an epidemic disease in itself, you can't advance in China, no matter your qualifications, if you aren't highly connected, and most aren't. Yes, I'm speaking in broad terms. But I did predict a glass ceiling years ago, because the lack of openness means terrible risk management and sophisticated risk management is crucial for sustained exponential. It has finally happened, growth in China shrank after Covid and the recovery is worse than in the rest of the world. If you need a reason not to trust China look at what happened to Hong Kong with all the promises made by CCP leadership. Look at the CCP attempts to shape policy, including in western universities. Look at the genocide against the Uyghurs. Look at the issue of organ harvesting, which is partly propaganda and partly the CCP itself hinders any attempts to actually disprove the allegations with their lack of transparency. I am forced to consider the CCP as evil-doers in the same order of magnitude as Nazi Germany. And that is before they try and retake Taiwan, which will be an unbelievably bloody business.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China <-Bling, Bling? O RLY? Edit: Some more propaganda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o96yCGqCHFg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o96yCGqCHFg <- Will be interesting in a few years, I guess.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      Yes, their high-speed rail is bling-bling. It's too expensive for most people. Much of the building materials have been substituted for substandard materials so somebody can steal the difference.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      Have you ever heard of the Transrapid? That was a technology that already worked decades ago, but hasn't been put into widespread use for various reasons. China has already overbuilt its highspeed rail system. China really doesn't need another solution for a problem it doesn't have.
      - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
        Yes I have :-) I'm German and once lived near one proposed track, meant as an upgrade to an already existing, heavily used main track, planned with many stops over short distances. Edit: Maybe they could use this to overbuild their already existing net with a dozen to two dozen strategically located stations, as an overlay of hyperhubs, and use the interconnections to conventional HSR as spokes which branch off of these. To make it even more competitive to air travel, especially for longer distances.
        bayesian_horse 4y ago
        You assume they'd built those connections where they are needed most. That's not how it works in China... You assume that company is giving an accurate picture of what it has achieved. That's not how it works in China...
  - zmaurelius 4y ago
    How do you define 'high-tech' here? Would a 'low-tech' nation be able to build a space station like this? China has a lot of systemic issues stemming from corruption and nepotism, but they also have a large population and a culture of investing in the education of their children. It isn't a coincidence that there is a huge number of Asians at elite US colleges, which would be even higher if affirmative action wasn't so prevalent. Its only a matter of time before China will catch up to the US and reach technology parity.
    - bayesian_horse 4y ago
      Much of the countryside is still doing subsistence agriculture, for one thing. "Catching up" means China is growing faster than the west, both in economy and technological know-how. But at present China is only marginally out-growing the West, even using the CCP numbers.
      - zmaurelius 4y ago
        Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. The US does have the advantage in that high performing individuals on the level of Einstein have a higher chance of emerging due to much more personal freedom and social mobility, but that is difficult to account for because someone like Einstein may or may not emerge in the next 100 years.
        nordsieck 4y ago
        > Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. Why do you think that's a reasonable assumption to make?
        zmaurelius 4y ago
        Upon closer examination, it may not be. There is some force multiplier there that I am not accounting for and cannot because there isn't really a good unit of measurement for technological progress or research speed. What seems intuitively obvious is that a country with zero STEM graduates isn't making much headway in research unless they recruit immigrants, so there should be some correlation with the number of STEM graduates and speed of technological advancement.

nordsieck 4y ago

> I don't think they are as cost-efficient as SpaceX or even Atlas and Ariane systems. It seems unlikely anyone is as cost-efficient as Falcon 9 with reuse. It appears to me, as an outsider, that Atlas and Ariane are 4-5 times as expensive to operate. There is probably plenty of room for China to operate more efficiently than that. Especially with their launch volume, which is second only to SpaceX.

bayesian_horse 4y ago
China is not a high-tech nation. There is a thin patina of bling-bling but underneath they have big trouble between corruption and nobody else trusting them. China has lots of money (for now...) so they can throw a lot of resources at the problem. In China, quick public successes always take precedence over doing it right.
- FooBarWidget 4y ago
  Your view of China is 10 years behind reality. Corruption was a huge problem, it is still somewhat of a problem, but corruption has reduced significantly and continues to reduce. As for "nobody else trusting them": based on what evidence? Foreign investment into China is at an all-time high. Recent research has shown that while sentiments about China has become much more negative in the west (and its allies such as South Korea and Japan), sentiment in the rest of the world — accounting for 80% of humanity — has become much more positive. > In China, quick public successes always take precedence over doing it right. I'd like to see some evidence for this huge, unnuanced claim. Of course they have an incentive to look good. So do companies all over the world. But to claim that that's all they do is to ignore the elephant in the room, namely 40 years of growth in prosperity that's unprecedented in human history.
  - AlchemistCamp 4y ago
    > sentiment in the rest of the world — accounting for 80% of humanity — has become much more positive. India is 1/6 of the world's population and its media sentiment towards China has been trending sharply downwards over the past few years.
    - FooBarWidget 4y ago
      You can read the Cambridge University research yourself: https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-divided/ https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/publications/a-world-... Check out figure 15 for South Asia's sentiment on China.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    The ISS collaborators have banned Chinese astronauts. The system is a dictatorship, Xi Jinping has a bigger personality course than Mao. The real estate industry is a mess, mostly because of corruption. "Tofu" projects are rampant. The High Speed rail is too expensive and has the same "Tofu" construction problem (=corruption). Corruption is still a major problem and there is no signs it has gotten better. African Swine Flu as an example can't be contained because that would need unbribeable enforcement. No-Covid only works (in the enforcement sense) because of draconian penalties. Cronyism is an epidemic disease in itself, you can't advance in China, no matter your qualifications, if you aren't highly connected, and most aren't. Yes, I'm speaking in broad terms. But I did predict a glass ceiling years ago, because the lack of openness means terrible risk management and sophisticated risk management is crucial for sustained exponential. It has finally happened, growth in China shrank after Covid and the recovery is worse than in the rest of the world. If you need a reason not to trust China look at what happened to Hong Kong with all the promises made by CCP leadership. Look at the CCP attempts to shape policy, including in western universities. Look at the genocide against the Uyghurs. Look at the issue of organ harvesting, which is partly propaganda and partly the CCP itself hinders any attempts to actually disprove the allegations with their lack of transparency. I am forced to consider the CCP as evil-doers in the same order of magnitude as Nazi Germany. And that is before they try and retake Taiwan, which will be an unbelievably bloody business.
- LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China <-Bling, Bling? O RLY? Edit: Some more propaganda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o96yCGqCHFg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o96yCGqCHFg <- Will be interesting in a few years, I guess.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    Yes, their high-speed rail is bling-bling. It's too expensive for most people. Much of the building materials have been substituted for substandard materials so somebody can steal the difference.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    Have you ever heard of the Transrapid? That was a technology that already worked decades ago, but hasn't been put into widespread use for various reasons. China has already overbuilt its highspeed rail system. China really doesn't need another solution for a problem it doesn't have.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 4y ago
      Yes I have :-) I'm German and once lived near one proposed track, meant as an upgrade to an already existing, heavily used main track, planned with many stops over short distances. Edit: Maybe they could use this to overbuild their already existing net with a dozen to two dozen strategically located stations, as an overlay of hyperhubs, and use the interconnections to conventional HSR as spokes which branch off of these. To make it even more competitive to air travel, especially for longer distances.
      - bayesian_horse 4y ago
        You assume they'd built those connections where they are needed most. That's not how it works in China... You assume that company is giving an accurate picture of what it has achieved. That's not how it works in China...
- zmaurelius 4y ago
  How do you define 'high-tech' here? Would a 'low-tech' nation be able to build a space station like this? China has a lot of systemic issues stemming from corruption and nepotism, but they also have a large population and a culture of investing in the education of their children. It isn't a coincidence that there is a huge number of Asians at elite US colleges, which would be even higher if affirmative action wasn't so prevalent. Its only a matter of time before China will catch up to the US and reach technology parity.
  - bayesian_horse 4y ago
    Much of the countryside is still doing subsistence agriculture, for one thing. "Catching up" means China is growing faster than the west, both in economy and technological know-how. But at present China is only marginally out-growing the West, even using the CCP numbers.
    - zmaurelius 4y ago
      Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. The US does have the advantage in that high performing individuals on the level of Einstein have a higher chance of emerging due to much more personal freedom and social mobility, but that is difficult to account for because someone like Einstein may or may not emerge in the next 100 years.
      - nordsieck 4y ago
        > Ultimately it comes down to a numbers game which we can roughly estimate by looking at the number of STEM graduates generated by each country assuming the research output of each individual is roughly equivalent. Why do you think that's a reasonable assumption to make?
        zmaurelius 4y ago
        Upon closer examination, it may not be. There is some force multiplier there that I am not accounting for and cannot because there isn't really a good unit of measurement for technological progress or research speed. What seems intuitively obvious is that a country with zero STEM graduates isn't making much headway in research unless they recruit immigrants, so there should be some correlation with the number of STEM graduates and speed of technological advancement.