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> They've exaggerated their economic growth for years, again because it's an autocracy and nobody dares to present anything less than the best economic growth f

> They've exaggerated their economic growth for years, again because it's an autocracy and nobody dares to present anything less than the best economic growth figures. I saw an estimate recently that the Chinese economy is probably 60% smaller than they claim, and the same is true for many dictatorships. Source? This just sounds like more of the propaganda you're spreading in this thread, accompanied by no factual evidence. And why should we trust your "estimate" over what a government representing a bilion people says? If you are referring to local officials falsifying data[0] then the government wasn't behind it and actually punished it. Then we have comparisons with the "night lights" data that show that recent economic data from China actually makes sense[1]: "However, while the level of Chinese GDP may remain overstated, both the Li index and estimates from the night-lights data suggest that the recent growth rate numbers for Chinese official data are more reliable." Also, it's gonna be hard to fake an entire high speed railway, am I right? > again because it's an autocracy and nobody dares to present anything less than the best economic growth figures This is just knee-jerk ignorance coupled with western presumption of superiority. Go study how the political system works in China, you'll find out people have much more agency over many things than we have in the West. - [0] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-punishes-local-officials-falsifying-economic-data-2022-05-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-punishes-local-off... - [1] https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors#:~:text=An%20exaggerated%20level%20of%20output,official%20data%20are%20more%20reliable https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s....

mcv 4y ago
> Source? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5A5Eu0ra3I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5A5Eu0ra3I > This just sounds like more of the propaganda you're spreading in this thread, accompanied by no factual evidence. Just check the video, it's all explained there. It's based on serious research. Of course hard independent data is hard to get from China, but they compare with many different countries, and the conclusions are fairly plausible. > And why should we trust your "estimate" over what a government representing a bilion people says? It's not my estimate, and that government has a strong interest in presenting a more rosy picture than reality. > If you are referring to local officials falsifying data[0] then the government wasn't behind it and actually punished it. That's not what I was referring to, but it could be related. Unfortunately that article doesn't say in which direction the data was falsified. However, it does say: >> There has long been widespread global scepticism about the reliability of Chinese data, especially as the government has sought to ease market expectations of a deepening slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. > Then we have comparisons with the "night lights" data that show that recent economic data from China actually makes sense[1]: > "However, while the level of Chinese GDP may remain overstated, both the Li index and estimates from the night-lights data suggest that the recent growth rate numbers for Chinese official data are more reliable." But also: >> This sizable gap suggests cumulative Chinese growth over the years could be overstated by as much as 65 percent. More recent numbers are more reliable than those from before 1994, but still not great. > Go study how the political system works in China, you'll find out people have much more agency over many things than we have in the West. Can you provide a source for that claim?

mcv 4y ago

> Source? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5A5Eu0ra3I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5A5Eu0ra3I > This just sounds like more of the propaganda you're spreading in this thread, accompanied by no factual evidence. Just check the video, it's all explained there. It's based on serious research. Of course hard independent data is hard to get from China, but they compare with many different countries, and the conclusions are fairly plausible. > And why should we trust your "estimate" over what a government representing a bilion people says? It's not my estimate, and that government has a strong interest in presenting a more rosy picture than reality. > If you are referring to local officials falsifying data[0] then the government wasn't behind it and actually punished it. That's not what I was referring to, but it could be related. Unfortunately that article doesn't say in which direction the data was falsified. However, it does say: >> There has long been widespread global scepticism about the reliability of Chinese data, especially as the government has sought to ease market expectations of a deepening slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. > Then we have comparisons with the "night lights" data that show that recent economic data from China actually makes sense[1]: > "However, while the level of Chinese GDP may remain overstated, both the Li index and estimates from the night-lights data suggest that the recent growth rate numbers for Chinese official data are more reliable." But also: >> This sizable gap suggests cumulative Chinese growth over the years could be overstated by as much as 65 percent. More recent numbers are more reliable than those from before 1994, but still not great. > Go study how the political system works in China, you'll find out people have much more agency over many things than we have in the West. Can you provide a source for that claim?