4 ms·

I don't think it's a mistake. They are just too early. Look at how Microsoft correctly identified tablet and smartphone as part of the future, as early as 20 y

by csdvrx 4y ago

I don't think it's a mistake. They are just too early. Look at how Microsoft correctly identified tablet and smartphone as part of the future, as early as 20 years ago when they had special Windows XP tablet and custom Windows CE environment. People often talk about the first mover advantage, but it can also be a curse: that's why Google ate Microsoft lunch, and why Facebook ate Myspace lunch, and why Microsoft ate IBM lunch etc. If Microsoft hadn't thrown the tower with Windows Phones, the present could have been very different! Now they are playing catchup, and I think that's what FB (now Meta) wants to avoid. Some companies manage to pivot (ex: Netflix did) but most can't: for example, Palm who couldn't leave PalmOS behind. Nokia also fumbled, even with the help of Microsoft, because they couldn't bear sacrificing their Symbian cash cow. Same for Microsoft actually: Windows 8 was too little too late, and the switch from CE to Windows Mobile 6 then 7 then 10 did spread too thin the developer attention: having to use a different language + UI each time required too much effort for too little gains. Windows 10 managed to correct the course, and Windows 11 is surprisingly good, but it may be too late and playing catchup with Android is not a nice position.

tptacek 4y ago
Just like a baseball bat swinging at a pitch, too early is just as much a mistake as too late. Microsoft is indeed a good reference point here.
andsoitis 4y ago
Windows CE released in 1996. Apple Newton (hardware & OS) released in 1993 and discontinued in 1998. Palm Pilot introduced in 1997.
zmmmmm 4y ago
> They are just too early I think this is part of the dilemma though. Apple has been rumoured to be on the verge of releasing their AR solution for several years now. It looks even more likely next year. If they do, Meta will be behind. So in one sense you can say they are too early, in another you can say they are already too late. So if you're both too early and too late, maybe you are actually at least trying at the peak of your opportunity to execute. It may come off or it may not, but the odds are not going to be better a year from now if Apple releases and captures the whole premium tier for itself.

by csdvrx 4y ago

tptacek 4y ago

Just like a baseball bat swinging at a pitch, too early is just as much a mistake as too late. Microsoft is indeed a good reference point here.

andsoitis 4y ago

Windows CE released in 1996. Apple Newton (hardware & OS) released in 1993 and discontinued in 1998. Palm Pilot introduced in 1997.

zmmmmm 4y ago

> They are just too early I think this is part of the dilemma though. Apple has been rumoured to be on the verge of releasing their AR solution for several years now. It looks even more likely next year. If they do, Meta will be behind. So in one sense you can say they are too early, in another you can say they are already too late. So if you're both too early and too late, maybe you are actually at least trying at the peak of your opportunity to execute. It may come off or it may not, but the odds are not going to be better a year from now if Apple releases and captures the whole premium tier for itself.