5 ms·

> Meta needs to generate $200B+ of profits on metaverse during 2030-2039 to make it worth it Is it too late for Meta to admit the Metaverse has been a mistake

by mkl95 4y ago

> Meta needs to generate $200B+ of profits on metaverse during 2030-2039 to make it worth it Is it too late for Meta to admit the Metaverse has been a mistake and shift their efforts to something else? And what would that something else be?

csdvrx 4y ago
I don't think it's a mistake. They are just too early. Look at how Microsoft correctly identified tablet and smartphone as part of the future, as early as 20 years ago when they had special Windows XP tablet and custom Windows CE environment. People often talk about the first mover advantage, but it can also be a curse: that's why Google ate Microsoft lunch, and why Facebook ate Myspace lunch, and why Microsoft ate IBM lunch etc. If Microsoft hadn't thrown the tower with Windows Phones, the present could have been very different! Now they are playing catchup, and I think that's what FB (now Meta) wants to avoid. Some companies manage to pivot (ex: Netflix did) but most can't: for example, Palm who couldn't leave PalmOS behind. Nokia also fumbled, even with the help of Microsoft, because they couldn't bear sacrificing their Symbian cash cow. Same for Microsoft actually: Windows 8 was too little too late, and the switch from CE to Windows Mobile 6 then 7 then 10 did spread too thin the developer attention: having to use a different language + UI each time required too much effort for too little gains. Windows 10 managed to correct the course, and Windows 11 is surprisingly good, but it may be too late and playing catchup with Android is not a nice position.
- tptacek 4y ago
  Just like a baseball bat swinging at a pitch, too early is just as much a mistake as too late. Microsoft is indeed a good reference point here.
- andsoitis 4y ago
  Windows CE released in 1996. Apple Newton (hardware & OS) released in 1993 and discontinued in 1998. Palm Pilot introduced in 1997.
- zmmmmm 4y ago
  > They are just too early I think this is part of the dilemma though. Apple has been rumoured to be on the verge of releasing their AR solution for several years now. It looks even more likely next year. If they do, Meta will be behind. So in one sense you can say they are too early, in another you can say they are already too late. So if you're both too early and too late, maybe you are actually at least trying at the peak of your opportunity to execute. It may come off or it may not, but the odds are not going to be better a year from now if Apple releases and captures the whole premium tier for itself.
colinmhayes 4y ago
I’m not sure it was a mistake though. You have to ask yourself what marks goals are here. To me, being cash flow positive is pretty far down the list. Meta could have results like the one last week for a decade and mark would still be a billionaire. He’d still be the ceo of his company. Pleasing Wall Street is not a priority for him. To me the main goals here are first creating a hardware platform meta controls in order to ensure his company can’t be destroyed by other companies taxing him like apple did, and second I do think that mark is legitimately committed to connecting people whatever that means to him. Reality labs still seems like a good way to accomplish these goals even if it isn’t financially worth it.
- tptacek 4y ago
  This isn't an especially useful frame. Lots of things make sense if you put yourself in Zuckerberg's shoes and assume he minmaxes for whatever random thing has captured his attention. The real question is, what should Meta shareholders do in response to this stuff? What would happened with respect to the shareholders if Zuckerberg took his foot off the gas pedal with the "Metaverse" stuff?
  - TigeriusKirk 4y ago
    It's an incredibly useful frame if the question is "Should Meta admit the metaverse is a mistake?"
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    I mean they only really have two choices. Stick with meta and hope mark gets distracted from the reality labs stuff or sell. Most seem to have chosen to sell.
    - tptacek 4y ago
      Right. Over the coming years, the number of people who choose to sell, buy, or hold will determine the outcome of the Metaverse experiment. So that's the right frame here, not whether Zuckerberg can continue pursuing it --- if only because the Zuckerberg question is much less interesting to think about.
mathattack 4y ago
It’s not too late. The money they spent is a sunk cost. If all they did was say, “We are going to milk advertising and give our cash to shareholders” they would do just fine. Or they could focus on creating the next social network. But… Maybe just maybe they pull this off. I just have a great idea on Mark’s product intuition, since so much of Meta’s growth has been data analysis driven.
- moolcool 4y ago
  > But… Maybe just maybe they pull this off It would be bad if they pull it off. I dread the day draconian call center employers make their workers put on headsets and track their eye movements for 8 hours a day, all while charging them for a virtual cubicle with a view. Look at the marketing materials for their latest headset, that's the way it's going.
  - Rebelgecko 4y ago
    Granted in more bullish on VR than most, but I'm skeptical of the scenario you're dreading- outside of the world "virtual" I think that entire situation is possible today, but it hasn't happened yet. Call center employees are already required to wear headsets, and if you're sitting in front of a laptop there's nothing technical preventing your employer from implementing an eye-tracking computer vision powered panopticon.
    - moolcool 4y ago
      All I'm saying is that it's not a coincidence that Adobe Acrobat and Dropbox are the top-billed apps for Meta Quest Pro

by mkl95 4y ago

csdvrx 4y ago

I don't think it's a mistake. They are just too early. Look at how Microsoft correctly identified tablet and smartphone as part of the future, as early as 20 years ago when they had special Windows XP tablet and custom Windows CE environment. People often talk about the first mover advantage, but it can also be a curse: that's why Google ate Microsoft lunch, and why Facebook ate Myspace lunch, and why Microsoft ate IBM lunch etc. If Microsoft hadn't thrown the tower with Windows Phones, the present could have been very different! Now they are playing catchup, and I think that's what FB (now Meta) wants to avoid. Some companies manage to pivot (ex: Netflix did) but most can't: for example, Palm who couldn't leave PalmOS behind. Nokia also fumbled, even with the help of Microsoft, because they couldn't bear sacrificing their Symbian cash cow. Same for Microsoft actually: Windows 8 was too little too late, and the switch from CE to Windows Mobile 6 then 7 then 10 did spread too thin the developer attention: having to use a different language + UI each time required too much effort for too little gains. Windows 10 managed to correct the course, and Windows 11 is surprisingly good, but it may be too late and playing catchup with Android is not a nice position.

tptacek 4y ago
Just like a baseball bat swinging at a pitch, too early is just as much a mistake as too late. Microsoft is indeed a good reference point here.
andsoitis 4y ago
Windows CE released in 1996. Apple Newton (hardware & OS) released in 1993 and discontinued in 1998. Palm Pilot introduced in 1997.
zmmmmm 4y ago
> They are just too early I think this is part of the dilemma though. Apple has been rumoured to be on the verge of releasing their AR solution for several years now. It looks even more likely next year. If they do, Meta will be behind. So in one sense you can say they are too early, in another you can say they are already too late. So if you're both too early and too late, maybe you are actually at least trying at the peak of your opportunity to execute. It may come off or it may not, but the odds are not going to be better a year from now if Apple releases and captures the whole premium tier for itself.

colinmhayes 4y ago

I’m not sure it was a mistake though. You have to ask yourself what marks goals are here. To me, being cash flow positive is pretty far down the list. Meta could have results like the one last week for a decade and mark would still be a billionaire. He’d still be the ceo of his company. Pleasing Wall Street is not a priority for him. To me the main goals here are first creating a hardware platform meta controls in order to ensure his company can’t be destroyed by other companies taxing him like apple did, and second I do think that mark is legitimately committed to connecting people whatever that means to him. Reality labs still seems like a good way to accomplish these goals even if it isn’t financially worth it.

tptacek 4y ago
This isn't an especially useful frame. Lots of things make sense if you put yourself in Zuckerberg's shoes and assume he minmaxes for whatever random thing has captured his attention. The real question is, what should Meta shareholders do in response to this stuff? What would happened with respect to the shareholders if Zuckerberg took his foot off the gas pedal with the "Metaverse" stuff?
- TigeriusKirk 4y ago
  It's an incredibly useful frame if the question is "Should Meta admit the metaverse is a mistake?"
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  I mean they only really have two choices. Stick with meta and hope mark gets distracted from the reality labs stuff or sell. Most seem to have chosen to sell.
  - tptacek 4y ago
    Right. Over the coming years, the number of people who choose to sell, buy, or hold will determine the outcome of the Metaverse experiment. So that's the right frame here, not whether Zuckerberg can continue pursuing it --- if only because the Zuckerberg question is much less interesting to think about.

mathattack 4y ago

It’s not too late. The money they spent is a sunk cost. If all they did was say, “We are going to milk advertising and give our cash to shareholders” they would do just fine. Or they could focus on creating the next social network. But… Maybe just maybe they pull this off. I just have a great idea on Mark’s product intuition, since so much of Meta’s growth has been data analysis driven.

moolcool 4y ago
> But… Maybe just maybe they pull this off It would be bad if they pull it off. I dread the day draconian call center employers make their workers put on headsets and track their eye movements for 8 hours a day, all while charging them for a virtual cubicle with a view. Look at the marketing materials for their latest headset, that's the way it's going.
- Rebelgecko 4y ago
  Granted in more bullish on VR than most, but I'm skeptical of the scenario you're dreading- outside of the world "virtual" I think that entire situation is possible today, but it hasn't happened yet. Call center employees are already required to wear headsets, and if you're sitting in front of a laptop there's nothing technical preventing your employer from implementing an eye-tracking computer vision powered panopticon.
  - moolcool 4y ago
    All I'm saying is that it's not a coincidence that Adobe Acrobat and Dropbox are the top-billed apps for Meta Quest Pro