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>The truth is that all semiconductor vendors are heading for a future where they're selling an undifferentiated commodity product. This is what I'm hoping for
by Vt71fcAqt7 4y ago
>The truth is that all semiconductor vendors are heading for a future where they're selling an undifferentiated commodity product.
This is what I'm hoping for as well. But there are huge upfront costs (>20b). This will limit the number of potential players.
- hoseja 4y agoThe upfront cost may plummet if you don't need to redevelop and replace your entire tooling every five or so years.
- Vt71fcAqt7 4y agoThis is an excelent point I hadn't thought of. The industry is currently chasing itself upward, which prevents the supply chain from maturing. I found that the cost to build a 65nm plant was $1.2B in 2021[0] which is a pretty mature node and that's still a large upfront cost, and smaller nodes would be even more expensive. So it's hard to say how low prices could fall. [0]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bosch-inaugurates-1-2b-factory-155750443.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bosch-inaugurates-1-2b-factor...