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I'm sorry but I find it incredibly absurd the number of people walking away from autonomous driving basically saying "The hard work is done, the problem is solv

I'm sorry but I find it incredibly absurd the number of people walking away from autonomous driving basically saying "The hard work is done, the problem is solved, it's time for me to move on to something else". Bullshit. In the last 5 years we've gone from optimists saying "Hey these new ML models are really smart we might be able to solve self-driving with this", to "We've totally solved self-driving, sure you can't, you know, let it drive, and in fact we've had to install cameras that monitor you to make sure you don't try and let it drive, but we've totally solved it trust me". Yeah sure buddy, you solved it, good job. It turns out the guys making grandiose claims five years ago, are still willing to make the grandiose claims today, and it doesn't matter that over the last 5 years their credibility slowly shrank to zero. Self-driving is more than throwing an ML model in a car.

wartijn_ 4y ago
I don't think that's what Hotz is saying at all, but he's saying that he's not person for the job anymore. He writes: "My two part blog post from 2019 remains a true description of the space." And this is a quote from (part two of) that blog.[0] > Nobody will have cars without a safety driver in cities anytime soon. Self driving appears to be like fusion, but instead of being perpetually 50 years away, it’s perpetually 5 years away. It’s 5 years away because that’s what the marketing departments are told, but the truth is finally leaking out. It’s going to be decades before robotaxis are profitable, and these companies are burning way too hot to last decades. [0] https://blog.comma.ai/a-100x-investment-part-2/ https://blog.comma.ai/a-100x-investment-part-2/
MetaWhirledPeas 4y ago
> I'm sorry but I find it incredibly absurd the number of people walking away from autonomous driving basically saying "The hard work is done, the problem is solved, it's time for me to move on to something else". In Hotz's case he's selling a product with a built-in ceiling: most cars don't have strong enough auto-steering to do anything beyond staying within a lane on at highway speeds. So now that they've iterated their product a few times it's becoming a game of reducing costs and making deals with other companies. Yawn.

wartijn_ 4y ago

I don't think that's what Hotz is saying at all, but he's saying that he's not person for the job anymore. He writes: "My two part blog post from 2019 remains a true description of the space." And this is a quote from (part two of) that blog.[0] > Nobody will have cars without a safety driver in cities anytime soon. Self driving appears to be like fusion, but instead of being perpetually 50 years away, it’s perpetually 5 years away. It’s 5 years away because that’s what the marketing departments are told, but the truth is finally leaking out. It’s going to be decades before robotaxis are profitable, and these companies are burning way too hot to last decades. [0] https://blog.comma.ai/a-100x-investment-part-2/ https://blog.comma.ai/a-100x-investment-part-2/

MetaWhirledPeas 4y ago

> I'm sorry but I find it incredibly absurd the number of people walking away from autonomous driving basically saying "The hard work is done, the problem is solved, it's time for me to move on to something else". In Hotz's case he's selling a product with a built-in ceiling: most cars don't have strong enough auto-steering to do anything beyond staying within a lane on at highway speeds. So now that they've iterated their product a few times it's becoming a game of reducing costs and making deals with other companies. Yawn.