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> The USA lost almost 2 million manufacturing jobs in the 1980s. That's misleading. Via FRED, manufacturing employment in the USA had a long peak lasting fro

> The USA lost almost 2 million manufacturing jobs in the 1980s. That's misleading. Via FRED, manufacturing employment in the USA had a long peak lasting from roughly 1970 to about 1990. The largest peak-to-trough drop was in fact about 3 million, from mid-1979 to early 1983, but that had more to do with the Volker recession than any change in corporate culture. Manufacturing employment rebounded (partially) from the post-recession low, remaining steady until about 2000. The sea change in employment came after 2000, plausibly due to opening trade relations with China. However, at the same time manufacturing production did not decrease much if any. For example, production of durable consumer goods (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPDCONGD https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPDCONGD) increased from 1982 to 2005 or so. That being said, "steady manufacturing employment" does mean that manufacturing employment as a share of all employment fell, thanks to growth in the labour force. That by itself can explain some of the qualitative observations re: the rust belt and such.

Spooky23 4y ago
It’s not misleading. If you’re not growing, you’re dying. A lot of things happened in that era, including massive productivity improvements. But at the end of the day, fiscal policy and tax policy drove even state of the art manufacturing to first push to the South, then to Mexico and then to China. So we exported wealth for cheap goods. As predicted in the 80s, the result is a country that is poorer and facing increasing social unrest.
- humble_dude_1 4y ago
  > As predicted in the 80s, the result is a country that is poorer and facing increasing social unrest. There might be greater wealth inequality. And some things might be getting measured better than they ever were, more accurately and truthfully. But today's America is not poorer.
  - throwawaaarrgh 4y ago
    Having cheap goods is not in any way the same as having wealth. Personal savings for Americans today are at the same level as during The Great Depression. Any significant financial crisis right now could be devastating.
  - bell-cot 4y ago
    > But today's America is not poorer. Take a look at (say) 30th-percentile incomes vs. the costs of food/housing/medical care now. Vs. in the mid 80's. Computer goodies might be a whole lot cheaper now, but the basic costs of living for the less-well-off are sure as hell not.
    - homeland221 4y ago
      You should factor in national and states debt. Vast majority of richness comes from turning debt (-ve) to positive via shifting it to national debt. For example? Let say, you owe 10K USD, government give you 10K USD and then cancel the debt a few mpnths or years later, you're now "wealthier" by 10K even if you do nothibg at all to get those 10K sent to you by IRA check. Americans now are poorer in real terms but get the facade of wealthy with borrowed money. Even if they dont ever need to pay off, their surrounding prices will i flates and catch up with their wealth and this is what is happening. When OPEC starts to shift half of petroldollar away, you will then understabd how we are now poorer.
- Majromax 4y ago
  > If you’re not growing, you’re dying. Isn't this exactly the same Welchian attitude implicitly criticized by the grandparent commenter?
  - datavirtue 4y ago
    You are either getting better or getting worse. Nothing stays the same. --nature
  - mushbino 4y ago
    Capitalism requires constant growth to function. There's no way around that.
  - Spooky23 4y ago
    It’s related. The US had 200M people in 1970. 330M in 2020. If the number of jobs is about the same, you’re shrinking. You can explain some of that through productivity improvements, but imo the bill was just outsourced away. The fact that we cannot build iPhones anywhere but in a specific region of China tells the story. It’s an incredible achievement - globally the industrialization of China dramatically improved the lot of a billion plus people. But that wasn’t free.
Majromax 4y ago
Reply to self: I realize I forgot to link the FRED series on manufacturing employment. It's located at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP. I apologize for the omission.
michael1999 4y ago
You skip the rise of leveraged buyouts, the end of lifetime employment, the end of defined-benefit pensions, layoffs from profitable corporations, rising competition from newly competitive Japan (and then Korea), and the whole 80s vibe. There really was a sea change in American employment culture from the 70s into the 80s. Just imagine that GM used to issue 35 year bonds!
- WeylandYutani 4y ago
  Yeah but you're on HN. Everyone here has healthcare payed for by their corporate sponsor and nice stock options. Life has become worse for the poor but it is easy to ignore that.

Spooky23 4y ago

It’s not misleading. If you’re not growing, you’re dying. A lot of things happened in that era, including massive productivity improvements. But at the end of the day, fiscal policy and tax policy drove even state of the art manufacturing to first push to the South, then to Mexico and then to China. So we exported wealth for cheap goods. As predicted in the 80s, the result is a country that is poorer and facing increasing social unrest.

humble_dude_1 4y ago
> As predicted in the 80s, the result is a country that is poorer and facing increasing social unrest. There might be greater wealth inequality. And some things might be getting measured better than they ever were, more accurately and truthfully. But today's America is not poorer.
- throwawaaarrgh 4y ago
  Having cheap goods is not in any way the same as having wealth. Personal savings for Americans today are at the same level as during The Great Depression. Any significant financial crisis right now could be devastating.
- bell-cot 4y ago
  > But today's America is not poorer. Take a look at (say) 30th-percentile incomes vs. the costs of food/housing/medical care now. Vs. in the mid 80's. Computer goodies might be a whole lot cheaper now, but the basic costs of living for the less-well-off are sure as hell not.
  - homeland221 4y ago
    You should factor in national and states debt. Vast majority of richness comes from turning debt (-ve) to positive via shifting it to national debt. For example? Let say, you owe 10K USD, government give you 10K USD and then cancel the debt a few mpnths or years later, you're now "wealthier" by 10K even if you do nothibg at all to get those 10K sent to you by IRA check. Americans now are poorer in real terms but get the facade of wealthy with borrowed money. Even if they dont ever need to pay off, their surrounding prices will i flates and catch up with their wealth and this is what is happening. When OPEC starts to shift half of petroldollar away, you will then understabd how we are now poorer.
Majromax 4y ago
> If you’re not growing, you’re dying. Isn't this exactly the same Welchian attitude implicitly criticized by the grandparent commenter?
- datavirtue 4y ago
  You are either getting better or getting worse. Nothing stays the same. --nature
- mushbino 4y ago
  Capitalism requires constant growth to function. There's no way around that.
- Spooky23 4y ago
  It’s related. The US had 200M people in 1970. 330M in 2020. If the number of jobs is about the same, you’re shrinking. You can explain some of that through productivity improvements, but imo the bill was just outsourced away. The fact that we cannot build iPhones anywhere but in a specific region of China tells the story. It’s an incredible achievement - globally the industrialization of China dramatically improved the lot of a billion plus people. But that wasn’t free.

Majromax 4y ago

Reply to self: I realize I forgot to link the FRED series on manufacturing employment. It's located at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP. I apologize for the omission.

michael1999 4y ago

You skip the rise of leveraged buyouts, the end of lifetime employment, the end of defined-benefit pensions, layoffs from profitable corporations, rising competition from newly competitive Japan (and then Korea), and the whole 80s vibe. There really was a sea change in American employment culture from the 70s into the 80s. Just imagine that GM used to issue 35 year bonds!

WeylandYutani 4y ago
Yeah but you're on HN. Everyone here has healthcare payed for by their corporate sponsor and nice stock options. Life has become worse for the poor but it is easy to ignore that.