> So first they say we are unlikely early. But if you consider that we are special (“grabby”) then that’s ok. I don't think that's their reasoning. I think the

> So first they say we are unlikely early. But if you consider that we are special (“grabby”) then that’s ok. I don't think that's their reasoning. I think they say: 1. once grabby civilization appear - it decreases likelihood of other civilizations appearing 2. so actually weighting by probability we're not early - we're average, because the probability of appearing late is almost 0 This kind of backward probabilistic reasoning always felt like cheating to me, especially when it's not only used to validate our models but to create them. As for NHL I don't know, but in football (soccer) 75% of goals are scored in first and last 5 minutes of both halves, and the single most likely period to score goals in is the final 5 minutes of the last half. So it was maybe realistic :)