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I was playing EA NHL a lot when I was younger. What I noticed was that there were more than average goals in the last minutes of the game than in the earlier mi

by baxtr 4y ago

I was playing EA NHL a lot when I was younger. What I noticed was that there were more than average goals in the last minutes of the game than in the earlier minutes of the same game. I always wondered if this was due to a badly implemented stochastic model. Since if the average goals per game was lets 5 and the score was 2:2 the likelihood of another goal would increase in the last minutes. This is how this argument feels as well. So first they say we are unlikely early. But if you consider that we are special (“grabby”) then that’s ok. Somehow like saying there would be another US like country in Europe if the Mayans were developing faster.

ajuc 4y ago
> So first they say we are unlikely early. But if you consider that we are special (“grabby”) then that’s ok. I don't think that's their reasoning. I think they say: 1. once grabby civilization appear - it decreases likelihood of other civilizations appearing 2. so actually weighting by probability we're not early - we're average, because the probability of appearing late is almost 0 This kind of backward probabilistic reasoning always felt like cheating to me, especially when it's not only used to validate our models but to create them. As for NHL I don't know, but in football (soccer) 75% of goals are scored in first and last 5 minutes of both halves, and the single most likely period to score goals in is the final 5 minutes of the last half. So it was maybe realistic :)
- baxtr 4y ago
  Yeah maybe it’s realistic in hockey too :) Re the article: yes, I understand their reasoning. But isn’t it like saying: if we were to become a greedy civilization THEN in the future we would think how good that we were early…
oneoff786 4y ago
Isn’t it because teams make riskier places to min max offense vs defense near the end of the game?
- baxtr 4y ago
  Yes, maybe.
- Apocryphon 4y ago
  Wonder if the same could be said of civilizations.

by baxtr 4y ago

ajuc 4y ago

> So first they say we are unlikely early. But if you consider that we are special (“grabby”) then that’s ok. I don't think that's their reasoning. I think they say: 1. once grabby civilization appear - it decreases likelihood of other civilizations appearing 2. so actually weighting by probability we're not early - we're average, because the probability of appearing late is almost 0 This kind of backward probabilistic reasoning always felt like cheating to me, especially when it's not only used to validate our models but to create them. As for NHL I don't know, but in football (soccer) 75% of goals are scored in first and last 5 minutes of both halves, and the single most likely period to score goals in is the final 5 minutes of the last half. So it was maybe realistic :)

baxtr 4y ago
Yeah maybe it’s realistic in hockey too :) Re the article: yes, I understand their reasoning. But isn’t it like saying: if we were to become a greedy civilization THEN in the future we would think how good that we were early…

oneoff786 4y ago

Isn’t it because teams make riskier places to min max offense vs defense near the end of the game?

baxtr 4y ago
Yes, maybe.
Apocryphon 4y ago
Wonder if the same could be said of civilizations.