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> the de-policing and catch/release prosecution policies which led to the violent crime surge I don't actually know if this is true, intuitively. The highest-c
by PuppyTailWags 4y ago
> the de-policing and catch/release prosecution policies which led to the violent crime surge
I don't actually know if this is true, intuitively. The highest-crime areas are not the areas with the least police. The lowest-crime areas are not the areas with the most police. Crime seems to respond as a phenomenon to other dysfunction of society, not because there is opportunity to commit them.
So, I don't know, can you educate me more about the relationship between police presence and its causation statistically towards crime? [To be clear, I'm not asking in bad faith or whataboutism. I'm genuinely trying to become more educated in this as a layperson who doesn't study crime to any degree.]
- throwaway894345 4y agoI don’t think it makes sense to look at number of police versus crime because cities usually hire more officers when crime goes up, and in the case of the BLM crime surge it seems like they aren’t laying off officers but rather pressuring police to avoid discretionary, preventative policing for fear of becoming the next Ferguson. There are quite a few papers that establish this connection, but this one springs to mind: > In June 2020, Harvard economist Roland Fryer and Tanaya Devi released a paper showing evidence of the Ferguson effect. Across five cities where a deadly shooting that went viral preceded an investigation into crime and policing, they found that the violent crime rate increased, resulting in an additional 900 homicides and 34,000 excess felonies across two years. They suggest that this was caused by changes in the quantity of policing. Other theories, such as changes in community trust, were not supported by the data. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/papers/w27324.pdf