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The one thing that the article might be underestimating is that solar/wind energy and battery prices will continue to fall exponentially. The high energy costs

• dboreham 4y ago
  Evidence?
  • baxtr 4y ago
    https://youtu.be/Kj96nxtHdTU https://youtu.be/Kj96nxtHdTU
  • nostrademons 4y ago
    Here's the price/watt of solar panels over the last 45 years: https://avc.com/2015/07/the-bull-case-for-solar/ https://avc.com/2015/07/the-bull-case-for-solar/ It's very much following the same exponential decay cost as microchips, probably because solar panels are also semiconductors. We put in solar a couple years ago; our neighbors put it in about 10 years ago; our array covers half the roof area that theirs does (and only about 20% of our roof, despite living in close to a worst-case lot for solar). Payback period was about 9 years when we put it in, but with recent rises in energy costs we're looking at a 4-5 year payback period. I expect a lot of pain this decade with switchover costs - it takes a big capital investment to switch all our energy infrastructure over from fossil fuels to electric, and there are still some unsolved problems like producing batteries (or other energy storage) at scale. But in terms of both physics & economics, renewables do have the potential to solve our energy problems.
    • rapjr9 4y ago
      Is that wholesale price for solar panels? I don't know of anywhere I can buy a 100W panel for $36. Cheapest I've seen is just under $100 and they have been in that range for years.
      • baxtr 4y ago
        For the same amount of power? I am asking because computers for example also keep the same price point but their specs increase continuously.
      • nostrademons 4y ago
        I assume it's wholesale and it's per cell, not the finished panels. Alibaba has a bunch of wholesale bulk solar cells at about $0.19/cell, indicating continued price declines (roughly consistent with the existing cost curve): https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/New-technology-700-watt-monocrystalline-solar_1600357491314.html https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/New-technology-700-wa...
• retinaros 4y ago
  it doesnt matter we dont have infrastructure to store this intermittent energy
• bequanna 4y ago
  I don’t think so. The current reckless course has us replacing stable base load with intermittent sources before we have any storage solution. That means you need to massively overbuild generation and transmission capacity to meet reliability requirements. Electricity prices are set to greatly increase if we stay on the same path. Of course, your friendly regulated utility loves this as they make a set % on assets they own. They could careless about efficient generation. More assets = better returns for their investors.
• janef0421 4y ago
  That is unlikely. The rapid price reductions in those areas have been due to technological maturation of the underlying technologies and scaling of the manufacturing processes. These processes are likely to complete soon, if they have not already, and future developments will likely have more modest effects. Additionally, factors such as increasing demand for both these products and underlying material resources are likely to cause an upwards pressure on the price.
  • jacob019 4y ago
    Perhaps not exponential decline, but I think the technology is far from mature, especially battery tech. There is life beyond lithium.
    • janef0421 4y ago
      Technological improvements will likely continue to exert some downward pressure on prices. This might result in a modest reduction in price over time. I personally think that increasing raw material prices will be a greater influence and costs will trend up, but I am not an expert.
  • baxtr 4y ago
    That’s apparently exactly what people have been saying for a decade and have been proven wrong over and over again. Maybe it’s true this time around. I don’t know. I am certainly not an expert. I wonder if it’s comparable to Moore’s law though.