4 ms·

Yes, but that wouldn't cover you for the unknown side effects of having a partial gene transferred to another specie with no way to know if in another context i

Yes, but that wouldn't cover you for the unknown side effects of having a partial gene transferred to another specie with no way to know if in another context it could be express differently, with powerful effects. The problem with complex systems with million of inter-dependent variables is that the unknown unknowns are too many and the only effective filter is time. However with those technologies ability to introduce powerful changes very fast, and little incentive from companies making them to allocate a lot of time, resources and prudence to study their aftermaths, the asymmetry of risk is not playing in our favor.

pfdietz 4y ago
> unknown side effects This gets into handwaving territory. Vague negatives that are impossible to disprove or even evaluate. At some point you have to insist those objecting actually have a point.
- BiteCode_dev 4y ago
  That's the problem with unknown unknowns. You cannot define them. We just know they exist, because the first thing science teaches us is the vast amount of thing we are ignorant of. What you can define, however, is the asymmetry of risk. For example, if a system is very complex, introducing series of intense rapid changes to it has chances of creating a strong disturbance because of cascading compounding effects on dependencies of said system. And because of the sheer size of the system, we cannot model it all, and hence we cannot predict such consequences and certainly not protect ourselves again them. If you highly depend on the system stability, then a strong disturbance has in turn a high chance of being in your disfavor. Nassim Taleb as a great bit about this his incerto. In the case at hand, the asymmetry is in not in our favor, and we should be prudent. And we are not being prudent. I'd say the irrational hand waving is rather from the people driving blind, yet stating we are doing just fine because most of the time we are arriving at destination just fine. Especially since the first people stating we are doing just fine are the ones that have a huge conflict of interest in the matter: the ones performing the changes and expecting to benefit from it. Now I understand that often the debate is full of facebook mums, which doesn't help giving a lot of credibility to the argument I'm raising right now. Still, I think it's important we remain alert and objective about the matter, and I don't think any side is. Certainly not when so much money is involved.

pfdietz 4y ago

> unknown side effects This gets into handwaving territory. Vague negatives that are impossible to disprove or even evaluate. At some point you have to insist those objecting actually have a point.

BiteCode_dev 4y ago
That's the problem with unknown unknowns. You cannot define them. We just know they exist, because the first thing science teaches us is the vast amount of thing we are ignorant of. What you can define, however, is the asymmetry of risk. For example, if a system is very complex, introducing series of intense rapid changes to it has chances of creating a strong disturbance because of cascading compounding effects on dependencies of said system. And because of the sheer size of the system, we cannot model it all, and hence we cannot predict such consequences and certainly not protect ourselves again them. If you highly depend on the system stability, then a strong disturbance has in turn a high chance of being in your disfavor. Nassim Taleb as a great bit about this his incerto. In the case at hand, the asymmetry is in not in our favor, and we should be prudent. And we are not being prudent. I'd say the irrational hand waving is rather from the people driving blind, yet stating we are doing just fine because most of the time we are arriving at destination just fine. Especially since the first people stating we are doing just fine are the ones that have a huge conflict of interest in the matter: the ones performing the changes and expecting to benefit from it. Now I understand that often the debate is full of facebook mums, which doesn't help giving a lot of credibility to the argument I'm raising right now. Still, I think it's important we remain alert and objective about the matter, and I don't think any side is. Certainly not when so much money is involved.