The notion that the US or NATO will “provoke” Russia into retaliating is foolish. Either they will use their nuclear weapons in a first strike or they won’t and

The notion that the US or NATO will “provoke” Russia into retaliating is foolish. Either they will use their nuclear weapons in a first strike or they won’t and you have no levers over that except their fear of you. There is no game theoretic value to appeasement because the decisions your opponent makes are completely dominated by their estimate of the probability that you will obliterate them. If you assume your counter-party is rational then their expected value calculation is completely dependent on their fear of you- and if you assume they’re irrational then you should strike first.