3 ms·

Oil refineries will still be around to produce fuel for aviation and cargo ships.

lifeisstillgood 4y ago
Why? I mean apart from the vast costa of such installations they are really flammable targets. Imagine a world where oil stops being sold to the Western world - we have enough EV and solar to keep ourselves happy. Say 2040. And then imagine how Saudi and Iranian armed forces will think - those armies have petrol powered tanks and aircraft. And they have oil wells and refineries in their countries borders. If we blow up the refineries then they won't threaten us anymore. Now add in domestic resistance to the regiemes who see the same calculus. Once the money stops flowing in the oil will be blown up by someone and quickly.
- rossmohax 4y ago
  We can imagine anything, but there is no alternative in sight to fossil fuels when weight (aviation) or total energy capacity (freight naval fleet) are decisive factors. We are yet to see EV trucks adoption, it is too early to talk about other more demanding uses.
  - lifeisstillgood 4y ago
    This is kind of my point. We can see a future where domestic transport (on domestic roads) and domestic heating and cooling and light industrial power is solar / wind. I mean it's a lot of solar cells on a lot of roofs but it seems to be a snowball right now. And that accounts for something like 50% of western energy use or more. And yeah there is no replacement for a fuel burning jet engine for an F35. Right now or even decades out. So what happens to global oil production if half the customers just go away. I don't think the answer is "same as previously just double the price to compensate". The issue is that the supply chain can / might / will collapse, become more fragile, less reliable etc. States will accept interruptions in oil production if their hospitals can keep running and their citizens keep warm. So that means that the hyper focus on armed support of the global oil industry goes away - and that changes global politics. Predicting what happens after this 50% ish tipping point is a fools game but something big happens - and that leads to all sorts of effects. More drones? More missiles and less fighters? I don't know. But there is a new equilibrium and we are probably only guessing what the levers are

Why? I mean apart from the vast costa of such installations they are really flammable targets. Imagine a world where oil stops being sold to the Western world - we have enough EV and solar to keep ourselves happy. Say 2040. And then imagine how Saudi and Iranian armed forces will think - those armies have petrol powered tanks and aircraft. And they have oil wells and refineries in their countries borders. If we blow up the refineries then they won't threaten us anymore. Now add in domestic resistance to the regiemes who see the same calculus. Once the money stops flowing in the oil will be blown up by someone and quickly.

rossmohax 4y ago
We can imagine anything, but there is no alternative in sight to fossil fuels when weight (aviation) or total energy capacity (freight naval fleet) are decisive factors. We are yet to see EV trucks adoption, it is too early to talk about other more demanding uses.
- lifeisstillgood 4y ago
  This is kind of my point. We can see a future where domestic transport (on domestic roads) and domestic heating and cooling and light industrial power is solar / wind. I mean it's a lot of solar cells on a lot of roofs but it seems to be a snowball right now. And that accounts for something like 50% of western energy use or more. And yeah there is no replacement for a fuel burning jet engine for an F35. Right now or even decades out. So what happens to global oil production if half the customers just go away. I don't think the answer is "same as previously just double the price to compensate". The issue is that the supply chain can / might / will collapse, become more fragile, less reliable etc. States will accept interruptions in oil production if their hospitals can keep running and their citizens keep warm. So that means that the hyper focus on armed support of the global oil industry goes away - and that changes global politics. Predicting what happens after this 50% ish tipping point is a fools game but something big happens - and that leads to all sorts of effects. More drones? More missiles and less fighters? I don't know. But there is a new equilibrium and we are probably only guessing what the levers are