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The price increases have been because of supply and demand mismatches and speculation that happened because of Covid as production stabilises so will the prices

The price increases have been because of supply and demand mismatches and speculation that happened because of Covid as production stabilises so will the prices. This is temporary aberration which should avg out over a decade.

bald 4y ago
Not sure why you're being downvoted, but this is the right answer
- mrelectric 4y ago
  You can't predict the markets.
  - hamilyon2 4y ago
    It is difficult to predict markets fast, reliable and precisely enough to reliably beat them. It is certainly possible to predict markets and be good at it, people do it all the time
  - HPsquared 4y ago
    They have a lot of variability. It's the difference between predicting the weather and predicting the average weather (that is, the climate).
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    It's easy to predict the markets, just as it's easy to predict the weather. I predict it will rain sometime in the next month at my address. I also predict that it will freeze hard in the same time period. This is a useful prediction, given that I will be winterizing my yard today. Making a prediction better than an expert's is hard. Useful predictions are often easy. If my father in law decides to plant 1000 acres in wheat next year, he is making a prediction about the markets. Given the situation in Ukraine and with global climate, wheat prices are one of the most difficult to predict precisely. But he is a low cost producer compared to many, so he knows he is likely to make a profit whether the price is high or low. A precise prediction would be nice, but producers everywhere operate with imprecise but useful predictions all the time.
    - drran 4y ago
      «Situation» in Ukraine is at mid-WWII level (1942), so plant the wheat. It will be tough to produce and export wheat in Ukraine for next two years at least.
      - bryanlarsen 4y ago
        If the war in Ukraine continues, oilseeds are the most profitable planting choice.
popol12 4y ago
Well, the covid/speculation shockwaves have affected many other goods, but I don't know any other asset that got to x15 in that timeframe. (maybe there are some others, I haven't tracked all of them tbh) So I wonder if you can really rule out that the increase in demand for EV isn't the main factor in lithium's x15 price increase. And if it's the case, I don't see how battery prices could go down in the next decade, since increasing mining isn't spontaneous and demand is not going to decrease.
- yazaddaruvala 4y ago
  Solid state, Na based, grid scale non-Li batteries, improved (i.e. cheaper) recycling of battery metals. There are a lot of reasons that would reduce the cost of batteries even if the mining+processing of Li didn't grow (which it will).
  - VBprogrammer 4y ago
    I'm definitely pro-EV. As soon as it's practical for us I'll get one. However, I do worry that there are so many dimensions to optimising EV batteries (degradation, fast charge / discharge, stability, temperature tolerance, weight, cubic volume and price) that we might not be able to find anything that really changes the game. By which I mean a doubling of capacity, so 200kwh easily in a car, by my maths that's what we need to keep a light van (3.5t say) busy for a whole shift. Or in my case to tow a caravan 300 miles.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      The only thing preventing manufacturers from putting 200KWh in a full size van or truck is cost, and with battery cost reducing 90% per decade, that should not remain a barrier.
      - pclmulqdq 4y ago
        The cost drops of the last decade will likely not continue going forward. It is more likely that lithium ion batteries will end up kind of like Nickel-based rechargable batteries: a huge spurt in cost reduction as they become mainstream, then not much after that. Lithium ion chemistries have a few more cost reductions to go, but not another 90%. Semiconductors spoiled us into thinking we could ride one technology idea down an exponential curve forever, but most technologies don't have that kind of progression. By the way, semiconductors didn't have that kind of progression either - chips from 10 years ago look very different than today's.

bald 4y ago

Not sure why you're being downvoted, but this is the right answer

mrelectric 4y ago
You can't predict the markets.
- hamilyon2 4y ago
  It is difficult to predict markets fast, reliable and precisely enough to reliably beat them. It is certainly possible to predict markets and be good at it, people do it all the time
- HPsquared 4y ago
  They have a lot of variability. It's the difference between predicting the weather and predicting the average weather (that is, the climate).
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  It's easy to predict the markets, just as it's easy to predict the weather. I predict it will rain sometime in the next month at my address. I also predict that it will freeze hard in the same time period. This is a useful prediction, given that I will be winterizing my yard today. Making a prediction better than an expert's is hard. Useful predictions are often easy. If my father in law decides to plant 1000 acres in wheat next year, he is making a prediction about the markets. Given the situation in Ukraine and with global climate, wheat prices are one of the most difficult to predict precisely. But he is a low cost producer compared to many, so he knows he is likely to make a profit whether the price is high or low. A precise prediction would be nice, but producers everywhere operate with imprecise but useful predictions all the time.
  - drran 4y ago
    «Situation» in Ukraine is at mid-WWII level (1942), so plant the wheat. It will be tough to produce and export wheat in Ukraine for next two years at least.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      If the war in Ukraine continues, oilseeds are the most profitable planting choice.

popol12 4y ago

Well, the covid/speculation shockwaves have affected many other goods, but I don't know any other asset that got to x15 in that timeframe. (maybe there are some others, I haven't tracked all of them tbh) So I wonder if you can really rule out that the increase in demand for EV isn't the main factor in lithium's x15 price increase. And if it's the case, I don't see how battery prices could go down in the next decade, since increasing mining isn't spontaneous and demand is not going to decrease.

yazaddaruvala 4y ago
Solid state, Na based, grid scale non-Li batteries, improved (i.e. cheaper) recycling of battery metals. There are a lot of reasons that would reduce the cost of batteries even if the mining+processing of Li didn't grow (which it will).
- VBprogrammer 4y ago
  I'm definitely pro-EV. As soon as it's practical for us I'll get one. However, I do worry that there are so many dimensions to optimising EV batteries (degradation, fast charge / discharge, stability, temperature tolerance, weight, cubic volume and price) that we might not be able to find anything that really changes the game. By which I mean a doubling of capacity, so 200kwh easily in a car, by my maths that's what we need to keep a light van (3.5t say) busy for a whole shift. Or in my case to tow a caravan 300 miles.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    The only thing preventing manufacturers from putting 200KWh in a full size van or truck is cost, and with battery cost reducing 90% per decade, that should not remain a barrier.
    - pclmulqdq 4y ago
      The cost drops of the last decade will likely not continue going forward. It is more likely that lithium ion batteries will end up kind of like Nickel-based rechargable batteries: a huge spurt in cost reduction as they become mainstream, then not much after that. Lithium ion chemistries have a few more cost reductions to go, but not another 90%. Semiconductors spoiled us into thinking we could ride one technology idea down an exponential curve forever, but most technologies don't have that kind of progression. By the way, semiconductors didn't have that kind of progression either - chips from 10 years ago look very different than today's.