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I read that lithium is above x15 more expensive than 18 months ago (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithiu

I read that lithium is above x15 more expensive than 18 months ago (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium) So, what makes you think battery prices are going to continue falling ? Isn't lithium mineral the main cost in building these batteries ?

xbmcuser 4y ago
The price increases have been because of supply and demand mismatches and speculation that happened because of Covid as production stabilises so will the prices. This is temporary aberration which should avg out over a decade.
- bald 4y ago
  Not sure why you're being downvoted, but this is the right answer
  - mrelectric 4y ago
    You can't predict the markets.
    - hamilyon2 4y ago
      It is difficult to predict markets fast, reliable and precisely enough to reliably beat them. It is certainly possible to predict markets and be good at it, people do it all the time
    - HPsquared 4y ago
      They have a lot of variability. It's the difference between predicting the weather and predicting the average weather (that is, the climate).
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      It's easy to predict the markets, just as it's easy to predict the weather. I predict it will rain sometime in the next month at my address. I also predict that it will freeze hard in the same time period. This is a useful prediction, given that I will be winterizing my yard today. Making a prediction better than an expert's is hard. Useful predictions are often easy. If my father in law decides to plant 1000 acres in wheat next year, he is making a prediction about the markets. Given the situation in Ukraine and with global climate, wheat prices are one of the most difficult to predict precisely. But he is a low cost producer compared to many, so he knows he is likely to make a profit whether the price is high or low. A precise prediction would be nice, but producers everywhere operate with imprecise but useful predictions all the time.
      - drran 4y ago
        «Situation» in Ukraine is at mid-WWII level (1942), so plant the wheat. It will be tough to produce and export wheat in Ukraine for next two years at least.
        bryanlarsen 4y ago
        If the war in Ukraine continues, oilseeds are the most profitable planting choice.
- popol12 4y ago
  Well, the covid/speculation shockwaves have affected many other goods, but I don't know any other asset that got to x15 in that timeframe. (maybe there are some others, I haven't tracked all of them tbh) So I wonder if you can really rule out that the increase in demand for EV isn't the main factor in lithium's x15 price increase. And if it's the case, I don't see how battery prices could go down in the next decade, since increasing mining isn't spontaneous and demand is not going to decrease.
  - yazaddaruvala 4y ago
    Solid state, Na based, grid scale non-Li batteries, improved (i.e. cheaper) recycling of battery metals. There are a lot of reasons that would reduce the cost of batteries even if the mining+processing of Li didn't grow (which it will).
    - VBprogrammer 4y ago
      I'm definitely pro-EV. As soon as it's practical for us I'll get one. However, I do worry that there are so many dimensions to optimising EV batteries (degradation, fast charge / discharge, stability, temperature tolerance, weight, cubic volume and price) that we might not be able to find anything that really changes the game. By which I mean a doubling of capacity, so 200kwh easily in a car, by my maths that's what we need to keep a light van (3.5t say) busy for a whole shift. Or in my case to tow a caravan 300 miles.
      - bryanlarsen 4y ago
        The only thing preventing manufacturers from putting 200KWh in a full size van or truck is cost, and with battery cost reducing 90% per decade, that should not remain a barrier.
        pclmulqdq 4y ago
        The cost drops of the last decade will likely not continue going forward. It is more likely that lithium ion batteries will end up kind of like Nickel-based rechargable batteries: a huge spurt in cost reduction as they become mainstream, then not much after that. Lithium ion chemistries have a few more cost reductions to go, but not another 90%. Semiconductors spoiled us into thinking we could ride one technology idea down an exponential curve forever, but most technologies don't have that kind of progression. By the way, semiconductors didn't have that kind of progression either - chips from 10 years ago look very different than today's.
epistasis 4y ago
Lithium is a very small input to batteries, by mass. I forget the exact number, but I think only a few percent by weight, and it's not a major part of the cost. There's also this breakdown: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a... I would expect battery prices to stall on their drop, or even rise a bit, in the next year or two, before dropping again massively in price. There has been a lot of supply chain disruption, and an absolutely massive increase in demand. But lots more production capacity is being built.
- popol12 4y ago
  Small input by mass but already 50% of the battery cost, from your link So if it does x15 in price, then battery goes x7.5 ? That’s still terrible for battery price
  - epistasis 4y ago
    No, the cathode is 50%, and the cathode is not just lithium.
pjc50 4y ago
How much of the price of the battery is the raw lithium, and how much is the cost of manufacturing? For most technological goods the prices of raw inputs are almost irrelevant; you don't see chip prices going up because of the cost of raw silicon. (Exception: solar panels, because those have the least processing over raw silicon and are therefore more price sensitive)
- ben_w 4y ago
  With the numbers on that chart, the relative molar masses of lithium and lithium carbonate, and assuming 160g metallic lithium per kWh, at current exchange rates, I got $132 per kWh. Which is a surprise, but so is a x15 increase in a raw material cost.
eloff 4y ago
Two things are happening here. One, we're bringing on much more Lithium production all around the world. The price increase is coordinating that, but people can also see the writing on the wall. There's plenty of innovation happening in Lithium mining and extraction. The other thing is we're innovating in battery chemistry. It would not surprise me if Lithium were only one of many options in ten years, depending on the storage capacity and number of cycles needed per kg. Sodium is a likely candidate, and it's as cheap and available as salt. Iron, aluminum, and others are a possibility, for stationary batteries where weight doesn't matter. I know people here are very skeptical of every battery advance press release, and rightfully so. But nonetheless, some of that is going to pan out, and the world of energy storage is going to fundamentally change the economics for cars, airplanes, and grid storage within the next decade.
- Tenoke 4y ago
  Is it likely that current cars would be compatible with batteries that are that different to not even be Lithium in 10 years? If I look at say my laptop or phone, they definitely aren't compatible with newer batteries even if it's technically feasible so why would we expect cars to be?
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    It’s a software update to support different chemistries. This is how Tesla supports various pack types (Li, LFP, etc) across vehicles and stationary storage products.
    - chamanbuga 4y ago
      To clarify: did you mean HW update? For instance, I can't imagine a software update changing my battery chemistry from Lithium Ion to Nickel Cadmium.
      - jxf 4y ago
        I think they meant that _supporting_ this type of battery is a software update. Software can't do matter-energy conversion yet.
jjallen 4y ago
The world has plenty of lithium. Just takes a couple years of mining to catch up. There’s also a limitless source in the ocean. If prices got high enough we could just filter ocean water.
- VBprogrammer 4y ago
  At what concentration though? At what price does lithium extraction from Sea water become economically viable? It feels to me that this is an entropy problem.
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    AFAICT, Lithium extraction from sea water is economical at current prices. What's preventing its mass adoption is the certainty the prices will stay at current levels.
- moffkalast 4y ago
  There's also sodium, which makes for almost as good batteries for much cheaper.
  - kwhitefoot 4y ago
    Not for use in motor vehicles. Very good for infrastructure though.
    - socialdemocrat 4y ago
      No, they are great for cars. For infrastructure iron batteries are much better. Iron batteries are not suitable for cars though.
Tuna-Fish 4y ago
> Isn't lithium mineral the main cost in building these batteries? No, and I have no idea why anyone would think that. Raw material costs are generally not that significant, most costs in manufacturing come from labor and capital. The lithium in a $15000 75kWh battery pack costs around $1600 at current prices. There is a lot of room for the price to fall even with rising raw material costs, as manufacturing gets more efficient and capacity is built out. And also, rising raw material prices will cause production to expand, which will eventually push prices back down.
- popol12 4y ago
  This source tells a different story: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a... IIUC 50% of the cost of a battery is coming from lithium Manufacturing is only about bout 25%
  - Tuna-Fish 4y ago
    That's not what the infograph tells you. It says that 50% of the battery cost comes from cathode materials, which is true for some chemistries, but even in those cases that's not because of lithium, but because of cobalt. Which is precisely why the industry is moving to chemistries that don't use cobalt, pushing the materials price back down.
    - scythe 4y ago
      Also, lithium isn't the cathode, it's the anode. The cathode is primarily nickel (III) oxide, which is unstable and so stabilized with cobalt, aluminum and/or manganese.
      - leplen 4y ago
        Technically most Li ion batteries are created in the discharged state, with the lithium in the battery provided by the cathode at the time of construction, and then moved over to the LiC6 anode via charging.
Retric 4y ago
First that wasn’t a 15x price swing, you read the chart incorrectly click on the 5 year view again. That said, Price shocks happened in both directions from COVID it’s just another supply disruption not any kind of a long term trend. As to cost, it depends on chemistry but you need ~0.16kg of Lithium metal/kWh or 16kg for 100kWh battery pack. At current prices that’s ~1,300$ worth of lithium meaning the majority of battery pack costs are still from manufacturing and other materials. https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=...
- popol12 4y ago
  November 2020: 40k$ Today: 562k$ Okay, 14x, not 15x But yeah, on average if you look to previous price, maybe it's more of x8 price increase. 18 month ago was the all time low of the data on tradingview, I give you that. About the weight details, are you sure your figures are correct? First result on google gives me way higher numbers (minimum 80g/kwh, but likely more than 160g/kwh) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehicle-battery-paul-martin/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehic... Also, another comment in this thread gives 60g/kwh, and another 160g/kwh
  - Retric 4y ago
    > minimum 80g/kwh, but likely more than 160g/kwh 160g/kwh is 0.16kg/kWh… But yes, it varies based on chemistry. 0.16kg/kWh is on the high end but hardly the limit. There are a lot of different electrode options: Lithium Cobalt Oxide, Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide, Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide, Lithium Manganese Oxide, etc In general if you assume high lithium prices then we would expect lower lithium use per kWh given sufficient time for the manufactures to adjust.
    - popol12 4y ago
      My bad, I read 16g/kwh. Nevermind.

xbmcuser 4y ago

The price increases have been because of supply and demand mismatches and speculation that happened because of Covid as production stabilises so will the prices. This is temporary aberration which should avg out over a decade.

bald 4y ago
Not sure why you're being downvoted, but this is the right answer
- mrelectric 4y ago
  You can't predict the markets.
  - hamilyon2 4y ago
    It is difficult to predict markets fast, reliable and precisely enough to reliably beat them. It is certainly possible to predict markets and be good at it, people do it all the time
  - HPsquared 4y ago
    They have a lot of variability. It's the difference between predicting the weather and predicting the average weather (that is, the climate).
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    It's easy to predict the markets, just as it's easy to predict the weather. I predict it will rain sometime in the next month at my address. I also predict that it will freeze hard in the same time period. This is a useful prediction, given that I will be winterizing my yard today. Making a prediction better than an expert's is hard. Useful predictions are often easy. If my father in law decides to plant 1000 acres in wheat next year, he is making a prediction about the markets. Given the situation in Ukraine and with global climate, wheat prices are one of the most difficult to predict precisely. But he is a low cost producer compared to many, so he knows he is likely to make a profit whether the price is high or low. A precise prediction would be nice, but producers everywhere operate with imprecise but useful predictions all the time.
    - drran 4y ago
      «Situation» in Ukraine is at mid-WWII level (1942), so plant the wheat. It will be tough to produce and export wheat in Ukraine for next two years at least.
      - bryanlarsen 4y ago
        If the war in Ukraine continues, oilseeds are the most profitable planting choice.
popol12 4y ago
Well, the covid/speculation shockwaves have affected many other goods, but I don't know any other asset that got to x15 in that timeframe. (maybe there are some others, I haven't tracked all of them tbh) So I wonder if you can really rule out that the increase in demand for EV isn't the main factor in lithium's x15 price increase. And if it's the case, I don't see how battery prices could go down in the next decade, since increasing mining isn't spontaneous and demand is not going to decrease.
- yazaddaruvala 4y ago
  Solid state, Na based, grid scale non-Li batteries, improved (i.e. cheaper) recycling of battery metals. There are a lot of reasons that would reduce the cost of batteries even if the mining+processing of Li didn't grow (which it will).
  - VBprogrammer 4y ago
    I'm definitely pro-EV. As soon as it's practical for us I'll get one. However, I do worry that there are so many dimensions to optimising EV batteries (degradation, fast charge / discharge, stability, temperature tolerance, weight, cubic volume and price) that we might not be able to find anything that really changes the game. By which I mean a doubling of capacity, so 200kwh easily in a car, by my maths that's what we need to keep a light van (3.5t say) busy for a whole shift. Or in my case to tow a caravan 300 miles.
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      The only thing preventing manufacturers from putting 200KWh in a full size van or truck is cost, and with battery cost reducing 90% per decade, that should not remain a barrier.
      - pclmulqdq 4y ago
        The cost drops of the last decade will likely not continue going forward. It is more likely that lithium ion batteries will end up kind of like Nickel-based rechargable batteries: a huge spurt in cost reduction as they become mainstream, then not much after that. Lithium ion chemistries have a few more cost reductions to go, but not another 90%. Semiconductors spoiled us into thinking we could ride one technology idea down an exponential curve forever, but most technologies don't have that kind of progression. By the way, semiconductors didn't have that kind of progression either - chips from 10 years ago look very different than today's.

epistasis 4y ago

Lithium is a very small input to batteries, by mass. I forget the exact number, but I think only a few percent by weight, and it's not a major part of the cost. There's also this breakdown: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a... I would expect battery prices to stall on their drop, or even rise a bit, in the next year or two, before dropping again massively in price. There has been a lot of supply chain disruption, and an absolutely massive increase in demand. But lots more production capacity is being built.

popol12 4y ago
Small input by mass but already 50% of the battery cost, from your link So if it does x15 in price, then battery goes x7.5 ? That’s still terrible for battery price
- epistasis 4y ago
  No, the cathode is 50%, and the cathode is not just lithium.

pjc50 4y ago

How much of the price of the battery is the raw lithium, and how much is the cost of manufacturing? For most technological goods the prices of raw inputs are almost irrelevant; you don't see chip prices going up because of the cost of raw silicon. (Exception: solar panels, because those have the least processing over raw silicon and are therefore more price sensitive)

ben_w 4y ago
With the numbers on that chart, the relative molar masses of lithium and lithium carbonate, and assuming 160g metallic lithium per kWh, at current exchange rates, I got $132 per kWh. Which is a surprise, but so is a x15 increase in a raw material cost.

eloff 4y ago

Two things are happening here. One, we're bringing on much more Lithium production all around the world. The price increase is coordinating that, but people can also see the writing on the wall. There's plenty of innovation happening in Lithium mining and extraction. The other thing is we're innovating in battery chemistry. It would not surprise me if Lithium were only one of many options in ten years, depending on the storage capacity and number of cycles needed per kg. Sodium is a likely candidate, and it's as cheap and available as salt. Iron, aluminum, and others are a possibility, for stationary batteries where weight doesn't matter. I know people here are very skeptical of every battery advance press release, and rightfully so. But nonetheless, some of that is going to pan out, and the world of energy storage is going to fundamentally change the economics for cars, airplanes, and grid storage within the next decade.

Tenoke 4y ago
Is it likely that current cars would be compatible with batteries that are that different to not even be Lithium in 10 years? If I look at say my laptop or phone, they definitely aren't compatible with newer batteries even if it's technically feasible so why would we expect cars to be?
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  It’s a software update to support different chemistries. This is how Tesla supports various pack types (Li, LFP, etc) across vehicles and stationary storage products.
  - chamanbuga 4y ago
    To clarify: did you mean HW update? For instance, I can't imagine a software update changing my battery chemistry from Lithium Ion to Nickel Cadmium.
    - jxf 4y ago
      I think they meant that _supporting_ this type of battery is a software update. Software can't do matter-energy conversion yet.

jjallen 4y ago

The world has plenty of lithium. Just takes a couple years of mining to catch up. There’s also a limitless source in the ocean. If prices got high enough we could just filter ocean water.

VBprogrammer 4y ago
At what concentration though? At what price does lithium extraction from Sea water become economically viable? It feels to me that this is an entropy problem.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  AFAICT, Lithium extraction from sea water is economical at current prices. What's preventing its mass adoption is the certainty the prices will stay at current levels.
moffkalast 4y ago
There's also sodium, which makes for almost as good batteries for much cheaper.
- kwhitefoot 4y ago
  Not for use in motor vehicles. Very good for infrastructure though.
  - socialdemocrat 4y ago
    No, they are great for cars. For infrastructure iron batteries are much better. Iron batteries are not suitable for cars though.

Tuna-Fish 4y ago

> Isn't lithium mineral the main cost in building these batteries? No, and I have no idea why anyone would think that. Raw material costs are generally not that significant, most costs in manufacturing come from labor and capital. The lithium in a $15000 75kWh battery pack costs around $1600 at current prices. There is a lot of room for the price to fall even with rising raw material costs, as manufacturing gets more efficient and capacity is built out. And also, rising raw material prices will cause production to expand, which will eventually push prices back down.

popol12 4y ago
This source tells a different story: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a... IIUC 50% of the cost of a battery is coming from lithium Manufacturing is only about bout 25%
- Tuna-Fish 4y ago
  That's not what the infograph tells you. It says that 50% of the battery cost comes from cathode materials, which is true for some chemistries, but even in those cases that's not because of lithium, but because of cobalt. Which is precisely why the industry is moving to chemistries that don't use cobalt, pushing the materials price back down.
  - scythe 4y ago
    Also, lithium isn't the cathode, it's the anode. The cathode is primarily nickel (III) oxide, which is unstable and so stabilized with cobalt, aluminum and/or manganese.
    - leplen 4y ago
      Technically most Li ion batteries are created in the discharged state, with the lithium in the battery provided by the cathode at the time of construction, and then moved over to the LiC6 anode via charging.

Retric 4y ago

First that wasn’t a 15x price swing, you read the chart incorrectly click on the 5 year view again. That said, Price shocks happened in both directions from COVID it’s just another supply disruption not any kind of a long term trend. As to cost, it depends on chemistry but you need ~0.16kg of Lithium metal/kWh or 16kg for 100kWh battery pack. At current prices that’s ~1,300$ worth of lithium meaning the majority of battery pack costs are still from manufacturing and other materials. https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=...

popol12 4y ago
November 2020: 40k$ Today: 562k$ Okay, 14x, not 15x But yeah, on average if you look to previous price, maybe it's more of x8 price increase. 18 month ago was the all time low of the data on tradingview, I give you that. About the weight details, are you sure your figures are correct? First result on google gives me way higher numbers (minimum 80g/kwh, but likely more than 160g/kwh) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehicle-battery-paul-martin/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-much-lithium-li-ion-vehic... Also, another comment in this thread gives 60g/kwh, and another 160g/kwh
- Retric 4y ago
  > minimum 80g/kwh, but likely more than 160g/kwh 160g/kwh is 0.16kg/kWh… But yes, it varies based on chemistry. 0.16kg/kWh is on the high end but hardly the limit. There are a lot of different electrode options: Lithium Cobalt Oxide, Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide, Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide, Lithium Manganese Oxide, etc In general if you assume high lithium prices then we would expect lower lithium use per kWh given sufficient time for the manufactures to adjust.
  - popol12 4y ago
    My bad, I read 16g/kwh. Nevermind.