I have no idea about the median developer, but the median job applicant is surely an order of magnitude worse than the top since the lower end spends much more

I have no idea about the median developer, but the median job applicant is surely an order of magnitude worse than the top since the lower end spends much more time looking for work and the top devs never have to interview. So if you judge the industry by your experiences interviewing applicants it will be very bleak indeed.