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Whoever did it, I can understand the motivation for a supporter of independent Ukraine to do it, because it cuts off a source of funds to Russia. What I don’t

Whoever did it, I can understand the motivation for a supporter of independent Ukraine to do it, because it cuts off a source of funds to Russia. What I don’t understand is why (as some news reports / sources suggest) Russia would do it. What would they gain? If they want to cut off gas and use that as leverage, far better to shut off the gas and their end and leave the pipeline so that they can resume deliveries if the gas pressure gambit works. Blowing up the pipeline shuts off any potential of ever exporting their gas, which generates currency.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> can understand the motivation for a supporter of independent Ukraine to do it, because it cuts off a source of funds to Russia No gas was going through those pipes. This impacted Russian funding to no degree. > don’t understand is why (as some news reports / sources suggest) Russia would do it. What would they gain? I'm honestly having trouble finding a great argument for anyone doing this. It could be a non-state actor. But Russia's benefit is multifold. It communicates a threat, e.g. willingness to damage Norwegian pipelines without getting caught. It distracts NATO and allied military assets, always a plus when at war. And it sows mayhem in the energy markets, which means prices go up. (Which happened.)
- torstenvl 4y ago
  It also allows Russia to spin a narrative of the West as terrorists (which they have done), claim themselves as victims (which they have done), and maybe galvanize the people domestically that they are trying to mobilize. Not that Putin has ever done a false flag to bolster his own popularity in Russia... oh... wait...
- eduction 4y ago
  The fact that NS1 was temporarily shut down in July before the September explosion doesn’t mean it wasn’t a near and long term source of funds. Also, if Russia wants to threaten Norway’s Europipe surely they can telegraph this in more effective ways than blowing up their own valuable gas pipes.
trinovantes 4y ago
Putin may have an interest in destroying the pipelines himself Inside Russia, there's probably some sentiment to end the war, dispose/blame everything on Putin, and resume the gas trade. If Putin removes that option, his opponents will have little to gain from getting rid of him as they'll inherit a mess with no way to rebuild.
polishdude20 4y ago
It could have been negligence during maintenance: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
- eduction 4y ago
  This is super interesting, I think this is in fact my new favorite explanation. (It's down right now but I found it at https://web.archive.org/web/20221001025812/https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html https://web.archive.org/web/20221001025812/https://thelawdog... )

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> can understand the motivation for a supporter of independent Ukraine to do it, because it cuts off a source of funds to Russia No gas was going through those pipes. This impacted Russian funding to no degree. > don’t understand is why (as some news reports / sources suggest) Russia would do it. What would they gain? I'm honestly having trouble finding a great argument for anyone doing this. It could be a non-state actor. But Russia's benefit is multifold. It communicates a threat, e.g. willingness to damage Norwegian pipelines without getting caught. It distracts NATO and allied military assets, always a plus when at war. And it sows mayhem in the energy markets, which means prices go up. (Which happened.)

torstenvl 4y ago
It also allows Russia to spin a narrative of the West as terrorists (which they have done), claim themselves as victims (which they have done), and maybe galvanize the people domestically that they are trying to mobilize. Not that Putin has ever done a false flag to bolster his own popularity in Russia... oh... wait...
eduction 4y ago
The fact that NS1 was temporarily shut down in July before the September explosion doesn’t mean it wasn’t a near and long term source of funds. Also, if Russia wants to threaten Norway’s Europipe surely they can telegraph this in more effective ways than blowing up their own valuable gas pipes.

trinovantes 4y ago

Putin may have an interest in destroying the pipelines himself Inside Russia, there's probably some sentiment to end the war, dispose/blame everything on Putin, and resume the gas trade. If Putin removes that option, his opponents will have little to gain from getting rid of him as they'll inherit a mess with no way to rebuild.

polishdude20 4y ago

It could have been negligence during maintenance: https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

eduction 4y ago
This is super interesting, I think this is in fact my new favorite explanation. (It's down right now but I found it at https://web.archive.org/web/20221001025812/https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html https://web.archive.org/web/20221001025812/https://thelawdog... )