4 ms·

If it's growing at tenfold per year, that's only six years' growth. I don't know what the actual growth rate is, but I don't think there's cause for concern, e

If it's growing at tenfold per year, that's only six years' growth. I don't know what the actual growth rate is, but I don't think there's cause for concern, except to coal miners. Edit: there aren't any material limitations. The current hotness is proton-exchange membrane technology; the coming thing is solid oxide electrolysis (promises lower cost); the century-old technology (that has been ignored for most of that time, so hasn't been properly cost-optimised) is alkaline electrolysis using caustic potash or caustic soda. Alkaline is slightly higher cost, but as I said no significant effort has been put into it for a while. There is no way we can ever run out of sodium.

AtlasBarfed 4y ago
Yes, which is why CATL's sodium ion 160 wh/kg mass production in 2023 battery is such a big deal. Hydrogen can grow 10x from where it is now because it is paltry in size, but then, no way. But as you yourself point out, hydrogen is all research and prototypes, but EV / Solar / Batteries / Wind is production or near-production. At this point the planet needs what works now. But will hydrogen extraction/electrolysis ever be cheaper than grabbing it from methane? I doubt it. That's one of the big big big issues with hydrogen, the "green hydrogen" supply chain can be exposed to fraudulently sourced hydrogen. Don't assume regulatory controls will be in place everywhere, companies will simply arbitrage the lowest common denominator regulation or under the table it. It happens to this day with petroleum from Iran and Russia.