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> Batteries are reasonably priced per unit, but they do not scale reasonably. What is your basis for the second part, that batteries can not scale? This seems
by epistasis 4y ago
> Batteries are reasonably priced per unit, but they do not scale reasonably.
What is your basis for the second part, that batteries can not scale? This seems to be an article of faith among many, but there's no data that can back it up, and it doesn't pass a basic sniff test, using common comparisons.
For example, a car that drives 300,000 miles in its lifetime, at say 30mpg, would consume 10,000 gallons of gasoline, weighing approximately 100,000 pounds. This is an order of magnitude more weight than the battery, and the battery can be recycled into new batteries afterwards, it's not even consumed. Why, with this fantastic reduction in the amount of input materials needed, would batteries of all things run out of materials? State your reasoning, please!
We are currently producing ~300GWh lithium ion batteries per year, and will likely 10x our production every five years, according to the industry reference I heard a year or two ago.
The idea that we won't have grid scale batteries within our lifetimes is contradicted by actual reality, today.
Competing batteries to fission is a sever blind spot that seems endemic. We have a shipping off the shelf tech that is scaling at an amazing rate, yet it's compared to science fiction that has been decades away for half a century.
This is exactly the blindness people have about batteries, and it's why all the traditional car manufacturers have been caught completely flat footed in the transition to EVs
All other areas of energy are going to be caught completely flat footed because Pepe for some reason believe fantasies about batteries rather than the real operating truth right in front of their eyes. What I can't figure out is, why?
- adhesive_wombat 4y ago> yet it's compared to science fiction that has been decades away for half a century. That's fusion, not fission. Though certainly it's possible fission has missed the window and, by the time terawatts of it could be designed, approved and built, solar, wind and others will have taken over.
- Schroedingersat 4y agoFission at scale is science fiction. There are no closed loop fuel cycles and 6TWe of PWR reactors would exhaust world reserves un under 5 years. Reprocessing all of the waste adds maybe a year, and enriching the tailings adds maybe another year. Sea mining and breeders are significantly less real than 46% efficient solar or 1200Wh/kg AlS batteries.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]