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We could be using the influence trade gives us to pressure them to change.. I mean your argument doesn't solve anything more than sticking our collective finger

by cortic 4y ago

We could be using the influence trade gives us to pressure them to change.. I mean your argument doesn't solve anything more than sticking our collective fingers in our ears and humming loudly. Though honestly, in areas of free speech my country seems to treat Saudi Arabia as a fecking role model.

decremental 4y ago
You may not have been paying much attention to the news lately but the Saudis just showed us how little leverage we have on them. Biden tried to get them to ramp up production before the midterms and they basically ratted him out and told him to kick rocks.
_djo_ 4y ago
I think it’s clear that influence through trade, or what the Germans called Wandel durch Handel, is an abject failure and doesn’t work. Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia have only grown more extreme in the past twenty years despite ever tighter integration into global markets and higher value industrial development.
- lostlogin 4y ago
  It’s possible you are misunderstanding the parent post. What if the poster means that despotic regimes could be influenced though trade by refusing to trade when they behave badly?
  - _djo_ 4y ago
    Possibly, but I didn’t see anything in the parent post that suggests that’s the intended takeaway. In any case it also implies expanding trade, in order to have the drawdown of trade as a credible tool. However, sanctions, extra tariffs, and other trade-based punishments appear to have had little effect in positively influencing the behaviour of despotic regimes largely because of how hard despotic regimes work to prepare for their eventuality. That’s not to say they shouldn’t be used or that trade should be stopped. Only that trade in and of itself is not the moderating influence it was believed to be, and that despotic governments are not strongly deterred by refusals to trade. This is partially because those regimes put in a large amount of effort and money into ensuring that they’re as insulated as possible from slow downs in any trade area that western countries can easily refuse trade, while working to increase interdependence in areas where they have the advantage. For instance, there’s a reason Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has such a huge defence industry component and why it focused first on being able to manufacture its own ammunition, bombs, missiles, etc (all the things easiest to cut off) and then on developing the skills to modify existing systems and substitute other components or elements if needed. The goal is to ensure the US (or another partner) can’t influence the kingdom by refusing to deliver bombs for a while. Much of the Middle East is moving in the same direction.
  - alexvoda 4y ago
    Precisely, imagine what the ongoing or brewing conflicts would be like if China had top tier chip manufacturing capabilities and no need for international trade and if Russia had diversified exports, a healthy autonomous industry, chip manufacturing capability, etc. International economic ties do help to prevent war even if their ability to do so is limmited. They also serve as a warning for when a state desires to go to war because you will see the state trying to limmit ties in order to limmit the effect of sanctions.
mcphage 4y ago
> We could be using the influence trade gives us to pressure them to change. We've tried that in China. And look what happened—yes, the standard of life due to trade with the rest of the world has risen quite a lot, but the Chinese people thank the Chinese government for that. So rather than clamoring for western style freedoms, instead they're more loyal to the Chinese government than ever, and so changes are in the opposite of the direction we wanted.

by cortic 4y ago

decremental 4y ago

You may not have been paying much attention to the news lately but the Saudis just showed us how little leverage we have on them. Biden tried to get them to ramp up production before the midterms and they basically ratted him out and told him to kick rocks.

_djo_ 4y ago

I think it’s clear that influence through trade, or what the Germans called Wandel durch Handel, is an abject failure and doesn’t work. Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia have only grown more extreme in the past twenty years despite ever tighter integration into global markets and higher value industrial development.

lostlogin 4y ago
It’s possible you are misunderstanding the parent post. What if the poster means that despotic regimes could be influenced though trade by refusing to trade when they behave badly?
- _djo_ 4y ago
  Possibly, but I didn’t see anything in the parent post that suggests that’s the intended takeaway. In any case it also implies expanding trade, in order to have the drawdown of trade as a credible tool. However, sanctions, extra tariffs, and other trade-based punishments appear to have had little effect in positively influencing the behaviour of despotic regimes largely because of how hard despotic regimes work to prepare for their eventuality. That’s not to say they shouldn’t be used or that trade should be stopped. Only that trade in and of itself is not the moderating influence it was believed to be, and that despotic governments are not strongly deterred by refusals to trade. This is partially because those regimes put in a large amount of effort and money into ensuring that they’re as insulated as possible from slow downs in any trade area that western countries can easily refuse trade, while working to increase interdependence in areas where they have the advantage. For instance, there’s a reason Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has such a huge defence industry component and why it focused first on being able to manufacture its own ammunition, bombs, missiles, etc (all the things easiest to cut off) and then on developing the skills to modify existing systems and substitute other components or elements if needed. The goal is to ensure the US (or another partner) can’t influence the kingdom by refusing to deliver bombs for a while. Much of the Middle East is moving in the same direction.
- alexvoda 4y ago
  Precisely, imagine what the ongoing or brewing conflicts would be like if China had top tier chip manufacturing capabilities and no need for international trade and if Russia had diversified exports, a healthy autonomous industry, chip manufacturing capability, etc. International economic ties do help to prevent war even if their ability to do so is limmited. They also serve as a warning for when a state desires to go to war because you will see the state trying to limmit ties in order to limmit the effect of sanctions.

mcphage 4y ago

> We could be using the influence trade gives us to pressure them to change. We've tried that in China. And look what happened—yes, the standard of life due to trade with the rest of the world has risen quite a lot, but the Chinese people thank the Chinese government for that. So rather than clamoring for western style freedoms, instead they're more loyal to the Chinese government than ever, and so changes are in the opposite of the direction we wanted.