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That ain't happening. EU would not take UK back in, much less with all the exceptions/concessions they had got from EU over the years. They had all the advantag
by coutego 4y ago
That ain't happening. EU would not take UK back in, much less with all the exceptions/concessions they had got from EU over the years. They had all the advantages of being in the EU while not being bound by some key obligations.
From the UK point of view the prospect of rejoining is even worse. How would anyone explain the UK public that they would be applying again for EU membership? "Hey guys, so we got out of the EU, got all this shit, lost the advantages we had and now we propose to rejoin in worse conditions and with a worse economy because of the economic damage caused by getting out of the EU (who could have expected that?)". That is not a winning argument to convince UK citizens to votes 'yes' on a EU membership application referendum...
Failing to rejoin UK could try to stay in the European Economic Area (EEA), à la Norway, or even in the EU Customs Union. This would in principle make a lot of economical sense and, in fact, the UK has all along only been interested in the single market and nothing else. But this solution is politically even worse, because it would come with the obligation to follow all the rules of the EU single market without having a saying on them, since they would not be participating in the EU democratic institutions (no seats at the Parliament or in the Council). Norway (and Iceland) doesn't lose a lot by being in the European Economic Area by doing this, since they are a small country and the power they give up is very small. But this is not the case at all for the UK. They are a big country and a big economy. It's not conceivable they would be giving up a significant chunk of sovereignty ir order to joint EU institutions while completely giving up their very significant voting rights.
UK is not rejoining the EU at the very least in the next 10 years. And even later than that, the only situation they could rejoin is if the differential of growth between the UK and the big EU economies (France, Germany) make the UK economy to significantly be left behind, which is exactly what happened in the 60s/70s and what forced the UK to joint the EU in the first place. It was obvious at the time that continuing being outside would cause the economy of the UK to continuing underperforming the economies of the EU and that is what is bound to happen now.
It's sad that UK left, but it is what it is and now they must find their own way.