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They'll push that target into the future once the power networks won't handle the load and the industry won't be able to obtain enough lithium and copper and se

by petre 4y ago

They'll push that target into the future once the power networks won't handle the load and the industry won't be able to obtain enough lithium and copper and sell the cars at a competitive price. The industy will reconvert the internal combustion engine to run on hydrogen and/or manufacture EVs with a small battery and a hydrogen power cell range extender. Renault already annonced fuel cell powered Kangoo and Master vans. https://www.renaultgroup.com/en/news-on-air/news/kangoo-z-e-hydrogen-and-master-z-e-hydrogen/ https://www.renaultgroup.com/en/news-on-air/news/kangoo-z-e-...

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
toomuchtodo 4y ago
If you would like to make a LongBet [1], I'm willing to take the other side and wager $1000 (to a charity of the winner's choice) that EVs move full speed ahead, hydrogen dies except possibly for trucks and niche use cases, and that range extenders are never deployed in material quantities. The Tesla Model Y is currently the best selling vehicle in Europe, and fully electric cars made up 16 percent of total registrations during the first nine months of the year. [2]. Fast DC charger networks are robust and continue to grow rapidly [3]. The costs to make these vehicles will only come down, and used vehicles will filter down to the less well off and replaced by new vehicle sales. Fast charges can already be performed in 10-25 minutes. A decade is a long time for progress. Tangentially, hydrogen is just an expensive, low density battery. Toyota is learning this the hard way [4] [5]. [1] https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ [2] https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/tesla-model-y-tops-europes-new-car-sales-first-time https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/tesla-model-y-tops-... ("Tesla Model Y tops Europe's new car sales for the first time") [3] https://chargemap.com/map https://chargemap.com/map (Map of Europe's Fast DC chargers) [4] https://electrek.co/2022/10/24/toyota-struggles-ev-shift-changing-plans-due-tesla/ https://electrek.co/2022/10/24/toyota-struggles-ev-shift-cha... ("Toyota struggles with EV shift, considers changing plans due to Tesla") [5] https://electrek.co/2021/06/16/toyota-delusionally-claims-hybrids-and-fuel-cells-will-stay-competitive-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2021/06/16/toyota-delusionally-claims-hy... ("Toyota delusionally claims hybrids and fuel cells will stay competitive with electric cars for next 30 years")
- hulitu 4y ago
  > The Tesla Model Y is currently the best selling vehicle in Europe This is like saying that Mercedes E class is the best selling vehicle. The majority of new bought cars are people's cars. When you have the majority of new cars replaced by luxury cars (model Y) this shows something different. (i.e only the rich can buy a car,).
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    The go forward economic mobility proposition for your average and lower income class consumer requiring an auto is either buying a more expensive EV (versus a historically priced combustion vehicle) or paying exorbitant petrol prices as various stakeholders make O&G production and refining painful (by design of course). The future is going to be harder than the past; way more people while we're trying to move away from a cheap source of energy that is detrimental to the species' survival. The days of cheap and plenty are behind us in the near term, at least until all of the flywheels around clean energy and mobility (and their associated supply chains) spin up to speed. Let's be real, we're shifting a global energy system to a new paradigm and attempting to do so in decades instead of centuries. Not easy nor cheap!
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  Rich poseurs fueled by subsidies. You could then make Lamborghini Urus best selling car in EU if you would set the subsidies right. In the end you need to target peoples cars (VW Jetta 20k EUR, VW Polo 16k EUR) and we are not there at all with BEVs.
- Sohcahtoa82 4y ago
  > Tangentially, hydrogen is just an expensive, low density battery. Toyota is learning this the hard way [4] [5]. That's not even hydrogen's worst problem. Hydrogen's worst problem is that it would need a distribution network set up. EV charging works because the electrical grid already existed, chargers just need to be plugged into it. Meanwhile, for hydrogen, you would need to transport liquid hydrogen all over the place constantly. It's a whole new set of logistics. To put it bluntly, Toyota fucked up and have been very slow to admit their mistake.

by petre 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

toomuchtodo 4y ago

If you would like to make a LongBet [1], I'm willing to take the other side and wager $1000 (to a charity of the winner's choice) that EVs move full speed ahead, hydrogen dies except possibly for trucks and niche use cases, and that range extenders are never deployed in material quantities. The Tesla Model Y is currently the best selling vehicle in Europe, and fully electric cars made up 16 percent of total registrations during the first nine months of the year. [2]. Fast DC charger networks are robust and continue to grow rapidly [3]. The costs to make these vehicles will only come down, and used vehicles will filter down to the less well off and replaced by new vehicle sales. Fast charges can already be performed in 10-25 minutes. A decade is a long time for progress. Tangentially, hydrogen is just an expensive, low density battery. Toyota is learning this the hard way [4] [5]. [1] https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ [2] https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/tesla-model-y-tops-europes-new-car-sales-first-time https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/tesla-model-y-tops-... ("Tesla Model Y tops Europe's new car sales for the first time") [3] https://chargemap.com/map https://chargemap.com/map (Map of Europe's Fast DC chargers) [4] https://electrek.co/2022/10/24/toyota-struggles-ev-shift-changing-plans-due-tesla/ https://electrek.co/2022/10/24/toyota-struggles-ev-shift-cha... ("Toyota struggles with EV shift, considers changing plans due to Tesla") [5] https://electrek.co/2021/06/16/toyota-delusionally-claims-hybrids-and-fuel-cells-will-stay-competitive-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2021/06/16/toyota-delusionally-claims-hy... ("Toyota delusionally claims hybrids and fuel cells will stay competitive with electric cars for next 30 years")

hulitu 4y ago
> The Tesla Model Y is currently the best selling vehicle in Europe This is like saying that Mercedes E class is the best selling vehicle. The majority of new bought cars are people's cars. When you have the majority of new cars replaced by luxury cars (model Y) this shows something different. (i.e only the rich can buy a car,).
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  The go forward economic mobility proposition for your average and lower income class consumer requiring an auto is either buying a more expensive EV (versus a historically priced combustion vehicle) or paying exorbitant petrol prices as various stakeholders make O&G production and refining painful (by design of course). The future is going to be harder than the past; way more people while we're trying to move away from a cheap source of energy that is detrimental to the species' survival. The days of cheap and plenty are behind us in the near term, at least until all of the flywheels around clean energy and mobility (and their associated supply chains) spin up to speed. Let's be real, we're shifting a global energy system to a new paradigm and attempting to do so in decades instead of centuries. Not easy nor cheap!
TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
Rich poseurs fueled by subsidies. You could then make Lamborghini Urus best selling car in EU if you would set the subsidies right. In the end you need to target peoples cars (VW Jetta 20k EUR, VW Polo 16k EUR) and we are not there at all with BEVs.
Sohcahtoa82 4y ago
> Tangentially, hydrogen is just an expensive, low density battery. Toyota is learning this the hard way [4] [5]. That's not even hydrogen's worst problem. Hydrogen's worst problem is that it would need a distribution network set up. EV charging works because the electrical grid already existed, chargers just need to be plugged into it. Meanwhile, for hydrogen, you would need to transport liquid hydrogen all over the place constantly. It's a whole new set of logistics. To put it bluntly, Toyota fucked up and have been very slow to admit their mistake.