7 ms·

If I'm not mistaken, gamma ray bursts properly directed from a close enough entity are a realistic "wipe out all life on Earth" event, though extremely improbab

If I'm not mistaken, gamma ray bursts properly directed from a close enough entity are a realistic "wipe out all life on Earth" event, though extremely improbable.

Moodles 4y ago
Indeed, I think a supervolcano like Yellowstone erupting is much more likely.
- actionfromafar 4y ago
  That would not even kill all humans. It would possibly destroy all of civilization though. But even then, the coming generations would have artefacts to study and be inspired by.
  - Moodles 4y ago
    Call me selfish but I don’t make much of a distinction since there’s a good chance me and everyone I know are dead.
    - thrown_22 4y ago
      Wait 80 years and you'll get the same effect.
    - actionfromafar 4y ago
      Another question is, how selfish are your genes? Half-kidding. :) I suppose people in North America have very slim chances either way, though.
  - brtkdotse 4y ago
    Sure, but since we’ve used up all easily accessible oil and gas they’d have a hard time to find the energy required to level up a society.
    - gibspaulding 4y ago
      That's an interesting thought. ACOUP did a blog post a while back [1] outlining the very specific circumstances that led to the Industrial Revolution and arguing that it's hard to imagine another way it could have happened. I suppose a rebuild would have to find a completely new route. Perhaps fields of Don Quixote esque wind mills connected to giant led-acid batteries rather than coal! With a couple hundred years gap between Armageddon and a substantial human population making progress, at least there would hopefully be decent timber reserves to work through the early phases. [1] https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-industrial-revolution/ https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-indus...
      - hinkley 4y ago
        Using recycled copper from scavenged wiring, because there’s no high grade copper ore anymore.
        ericbarrett 4y ago
        All that copper went somewhere, though. A rising post-apocalypse civilization would probably mine our dumps and ruins, Rimworld-style.
      - pchristensen 4y ago
        In a rebuilding event, we'd have the advantage of knowing it was possible and desirable. This book, for instance, would be worth kingdoms in such a situation - https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Aftermath-Cataclysm/dp/0143127047 https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Afterm...
        kirykl 4y ago
        Just make sure to purchase the paper copy and not kindle
        wahern 4y ago
        Or this one: https://www.amazon.com/Machinerys-Handbook-Toolbox-Erik-Oberg/dp/0831137312/ https://www.amazon.com/Machinerys-Handbook-Toolbox-Erik-Ober... > For more than 100 years, Machinery's Handbook has been the most popular reference work in metalworking, design, engineering and manufacturing facilities, and technical schools and colleges throughout the world. It is universally acknowledged as an extraordinarily authoritative, comprehensive, and practical tool, providing its users with the most fundamental and essential aspects of sophisticated manufacturing practice.
- tambourine_man 4y ago
  Probably shouldn’t worry much about that: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fXb02MQ78yQ https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fXb02MQ78yQ
Plasmoid 4y ago
They are. Luckily the only GRB candidate close enough to do that is eta carinae and it's probably pointing in the wrong direction.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- dima_vm 4y ago
  Sounds like it's a perfect case where "probably" is not enough.
  - BurningFrog 4y ago
    It's probably enough.
  - lallysingh 4y ago
    Enough for what? Useless worry? I don't think there's much we could do about it.
  - Beltalowda 4y ago
    I mean, not much you can do about it, can you? Either way, it's not likely to produce a GRB in the first place, it's too far away to really affect the earth in dramatic sci-fi story ways, and it's pointed in the wrong way. It's a "GRB candidate" in the same way you're a "lottery winner candidate" if you buy a ticket.
    - echelon 4y ago
      > I mean, not much you can do about it, can you? Work to shed our biology faster. We'll get to that sometime in the next hundred years or so.
      - suggestion 4y ago
        Mate I've got some bad news for you
throwawaymaths 4y ago
Probably not? Half of the life on earth would probably survive the initial radiation burst, due to geography, and while there will be massive atmospheric chemistry changes that would be highly traumatic it seems like life would find a way, as they say.

If I'm not mistaken, gamma ray bursts properly directed from a close enough entity are a realistic "wipe out all life on Earth" event, though extremely improbable.

Moodles 4y ago

Indeed, I think a supervolcano like Yellowstone erupting is much more likely.

actionfromafar 4y ago
That would not even kill all humans. It would possibly destroy all of civilization though. But even then, the coming generations would have artefacts to study and be inspired by.
- Moodles 4y ago
  Call me selfish but I don’t make much of a distinction since there’s a good chance me and everyone I know are dead.
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    Wait 80 years and you'll get the same effect.
  - actionfromafar 4y ago
    Another question is, how selfish are your genes? Half-kidding. :) I suppose people in North America have very slim chances either way, though.
- brtkdotse 4y ago
  Sure, but since we’ve used up all easily accessible oil and gas they’d have a hard time to find the energy required to level up a society.
  - gibspaulding 4y ago
    That's an interesting thought. ACOUP did a blog post a while back [1] outlining the very specific circumstances that led to the Industrial Revolution and arguing that it's hard to imagine another way it could have happened. I suppose a rebuild would have to find a completely new route. Perhaps fields of Don Quixote esque wind mills connected to giant led-acid batteries rather than coal! With a couple hundred years gap between Armageddon and a substantial human population making progress, at least there would hopefully be decent timber reserves to work through the early phases. [1] https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-industrial-revolution/ https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-indus...
    - hinkley 4y ago
      Using recycled copper from scavenged wiring, because there’s no high grade copper ore anymore.
      - ericbarrett 4y ago
        All that copper went somewhere, though. A rising post-apocalypse civilization would probably mine our dumps and ruins, Rimworld-style.
    - pchristensen 4y ago
      In a rebuilding event, we'd have the advantage of knowing it was possible and desirable. This book, for instance, would be worth kingdoms in such a situation - https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Aftermath-Cataclysm/dp/0143127047 https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Afterm...
      - kirykl 4y ago
        Just make sure to purchase the paper copy and not kindle
      - wahern 4y ago
        Or this one: https://www.amazon.com/Machinerys-Handbook-Toolbox-Erik-Oberg/dp/0831137312/ https://www.amazon.com/Machinerys-Handbook-Toolbox-Erik-Ober... > For more than 100 years, Machinery's Handbook has been the most popular reference work in metalworking, design, engineering and manufacturing facilities, and technical schools and colleges throughout the world. It is universally acknowledged as an extraordinarily authoritative, comprehensive, and practical tool, providing its users with the most fundamental and essential aspects of sophisticated manufacturing practice.
tambourine_man 4y ago
Probably shouldn’t worry much about that: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fXb02MQ78yQ https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fXb02MQ78yQ

Plasmoid 4y ago

They are. Luckily the only GRB candidate close enough to do that is eta carinae and it's probably pointing in the wrong direction.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
dima_vm 4y ago
Sounds like it's a perfect case where "probably" is not enough.
- BurningFrog 4y ago
  It's probably enough.
- lallysingh 4y ago
  Enough for what? Useless worry? I don't think there's much we could do about it.
- Beltalowda 4y ago
  I mean, not much you can do about it, can you? Either way, it's not likely to produce a GRB in the first place, it's too far away to really affect the earth in dramatic sci-fi story ways, and it's pointed in the wrong way. It's a "GRB candidate" in the same way you're a "lottery winner candidate" if you buy a ticket.
  - echelon 4y ago
    > I mean, not much you can do about it, can you? Work to shed our biology faster. We'll get to that sometime in the next hundred years or so.
    - suggestion 4y ago
      Mate I've got some bad news for you

throwawaymaths 4y ago

Probably not? Half of the life on earth would probably survive the initial radiation burst, due to geography, and while there will be massive atmospheric chemistry changes that would be highly traumatic it seems like life would find a way, as they say.