Actually, there are many good reasons to think it's close: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon https

Actually, there are many good reasons to think it's close: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-thin...