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An Analysis of the Origins of the Covid-19 Pandemic [pdf]

24 points by Jaxkr 4y ago

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
mrkramer 4y ago
>Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. I knew it from the day 1; my layman understanding was that Covid variants in nature are not that virulent as Covid-19. Covid-19 was GOF experiment which went wrong in a sense that it lab leaked. Lab leaks happen all the time but not as impactful as this one. We should learn from our mistakes not sweep them under the carpet.
- cassianoleal 4y ago
  > Lab leaks happen all the time Honestly, that's terrifying to read. Do you have references to numbers of leaks or other information on the subject?
  - mrkramer 4y ago
    There you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity... You can also search previous Covid related discussions here on HN for more information.
    - tunap 4y ago
      Interesting that the 1989 Reston, VA release was not included... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone
      - mrkramer 4y ago
        Page says: "The list is grouped by the year in which the accident or incident occurred and does not include every reported laboratory-acquired infection. This is a dynamic list and may never be able to satisfy particular standards for completeness. You can help by adding missing items with reliable sources." Wikipedia is crowd-sourced project, anyone can edit it if he or she thinks it is necessary(either something might be missing or something might be wrong).
    - triplebankshot 4y ago
      Also useful to look at a list of known LAIs (Lab-acquired infections): https://my.absa.org/LAI https://my.absa.org/LAI Most of these don't spread beyond the initially infected lab workers, but the sheer number is staggering.
- TMWNN 4y ago
  >We should learn from our mistakes not sweep them under the carpet. My understanding is that at the start of COVID19 scientists in related fields immediately assumed that a lab leak was the likely cause, and were dumbfounded to hear such a strong and immediate consensus (the Nature letter, for example) against such.
melling 4y ago
As pointed out on HN yesterday, it’s the Republicans in the Senate. It’s political. When will we learn? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33365683 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33365683
- 0xy 4y ago
  Joe Biden ordered a report into this and the intelligence community concluded lab leak was a viable possibility, so I don't see how this is political. Both parties agree lab leak is a possibility (well, now they do, after Democrats called it racist).
- roenxi 4y ago
  Wholehearted agreement, but that leaves two interesting questions: 1) Is the report substantially correct? 2) Why do the Republicans think that this message will help them politically? Bonus points to anyone who gets through that minefield insulting the intelligence of their political opposition.
  - melling 4y ago
    They covered all the bases so it’s impossible to be wrong. “More likely than not..” “More information is needed…” “As noted by the WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens, the COVID- 19 Lancet Commission, and the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence 90-Day Assessment on the COVID-19 Origins, more information is needed to arrive at a more precise, if not a definitive, understanding of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and how the COVID-19 pandemic began”
  - jrootabega 4y ago
    I'll try to answer #2 in good faith - people have a limited amount of anger and hostility, and a limited memory. This could get people riled up against China, and against anyone who had been skeptical of a lab leak, two weeks before midterm elections.
- peteradio 4y ago
  Ad hominem fallacy.
NDizzle 4y ago
Can we actually discuss this, or are people still freaking out? This was incredibly obvious, even early, early on. Suppression isn’t good, folks.
- ideamotor 4y ago
  This is not a real report. I very much suspected this is what happened but the trustworthy peer-reviewed studies have disavowed it. If you trust this study over those, you probably should refuse emergency medical care and read everything backwards.
  - peteradio 4y ago
    Which ones have disavowed this (very real) reports findings? As far as I've seen, there is a false dichotomy between the first spreading event being source and lab being source. Angela Rasmussen for instance is well known for her detailed studies around the live animal market but it doesn't make sense to proclaim that because it spread there that it precludes coming there via a lab worker over a game hunter.
  - origin_path 4y ago
    What is a "real report" by your definition? The word report is a very general one. Peer-review studies are not exactly trustworthy on this topic, are they? The peers in question are virologists and others who directly enabled their work.
- not_the_fda 4y ago
  Unfortunately it became political, so all rational discussion became impossible.
  - jrootabega 4y ago
    No no, it's a combination of: - impossible to have ONLY rational discussion - Unfashionable points of view being suppressed on HN by those with the numbers/power. Here's some rational discussion which I was originally unable to post because the submission had been reflexively flagged and killed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33370251 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33370251
biofox 4y ago
I've been following this discussion from the start, and this report presents the clearest and most compelling summary of the evidence I've seen so far. Excerpt from the conclusion on p.26: "Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. New information, made publicly available and independently verifiable, could change this assessment. However, the hypothesis of a natural zoonotic origin no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt, or the presumption of accuracy."
jrootabega 4y ago
In these circumstances, does it matter to public safety whether it did or didn't? It seems more important to me whether it COULD or COULD NEVER originate like this. I think things are tilted pretty heavily towards the COULD side. So if we, as a species, continue research like this (and I think we need to), it needs to be strictly quarantined. If you set foot in a facility like this, you don't get to rejoin the rest of society until you go through a multi-week quarantine site. It's remote work.
- jfengel 4y ago
  "COULD" is a certainty, so quarantine measures are already in place. The question is, are the quarantine measures sufficient? The answer to that is "we don't know". And the corollary, unfortunately, is "... but we can make a lot of political hay out of taking guesses."
  - jrootabega 4y ago
    The general impression, which I haven't really seen challenged, is that these lab employees take precautions while in the lab, or maybe while leaving the building. I think the default sensible stance is that they're not sufficient, now that we've seen how the world is capable of reacting to an outbreak.
tunap 4y ago
What period of time could a less severe variant(s) have escaped into the wild before the more severe 'Alpha' variant gained traction? AFAIK, China, & others, were treating non-influenza, flu-like cases months before they cancelled Chinese New Year 2020. The timeline may not have been as short as a Stephen King novel and, perhaps, it was even prior to Oct/Nov 2019. My question is this: Are there any frequent/infrequent travelers to China familiar with non-asian visitors getting severe influenza(or other) infections when they 1st visit? I know one such traveler who spent 3 months in a "ghost room"(1) suffering from a lung infection back in early 2019. (1) Hospice; he reported it as called the 'ghost room' as the rest of the occupants were terminal cancer patients.
SevenNation 4y ago
Why is this flagged? It's a report from the US Senate. It reports a significant finding: > Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. Look at all of the cautionary language in this statement. This isn't a group of Republicans fear mongering. It's a group trying to make sense of the information that currently exists. Knowing the origin of the pandemic is the only way we can hope to prevent the next one. This topic is not a political issue, it's a scientific and humanitarian one.
- peteradio 4y ago
  It's STILL flagged because OP hasn't contacted moderators to get a specific look. Anybody above a certain karma threshold can derail conversation, its incumbent on interested parties to doxx themselves with an email address if they want to unflag a story.
- jeremyashort 4y ago
  It's a report from the minority senate staffers, aka the republican staffers. It's a political ploy filled with uncertain language yet proclaiming a certain verdict. These types of things are constantly being flagged on HN (for good reason).
  - SevenNation 4y ago
    What's the political angle then?
- skmurphy 4y ago
  See also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33377145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33377145 where Pro Publica digs in and essentially agrees with their conclusions as to the likelihood of a lab leak origin.

24 points by Jaxkr 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

>Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. I knew it from the day 1; my layman understanding was that Covid variants in nature are not that virulent as Covid-19. Covid-19 was GOF experiment which went wrong in a sense that it lab leaked. Lab leaks happen all the time but not as impactful as this one. We should learn from our mistakes not sweep them under the carpet.

cassianoleal 4y ago
> Lab leaks happen all the time Honestly, that's terrifying to read. Do you have references to numbers of leaks or other information on the subject?
- mrkramer 4y ago
  There you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity... You can also search previous Covid related discussions here on HN for more information.
  - tunap 4y ago
    Interesting that the 1989 Reston, VA release was not included... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone
    - mrkramer 4y ago
      Page says: "The list is grouped by the year in which the accident or incident occurred and does not include every reported laboratory-acquired infection. This is a dynamic list and may never be able to satisfy particular standards for completeness. You can help by adding missing items with reliable sources." Wikipedia is crowd-sourced project, anyone can edit it if he or she thinks it is necessary(either something might be missing or something might be wrong).
  - triplebankshot 4y ago
    Also useful to look at a list of known LAIs (Lab-acquired infections): https://my.absa.org/LAI https://my.absa.org/LAI Most of these don't spread beyond the initially infected lab workers, but the sheer number is staggering.
TMWNN 4y ago
>We should learn from our mistakes not sweep them under the carpet. My understanding is that at the start of COVID19 scientists in related fields immediately assumed that a lab leak was the likely cause, and were dumbfounded to hear such a strong and immediate consensus (the Nature letter, for example) against such.

melling 4y ago

As pointed out on HN yesterday, it’s the Republicans in the Senate. It’s political. When will we learn? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33365683 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33365683

0xy 4y ago
Joe Biden ordered a report into this and the intelligence community concluded lab leak was a viable possibility, so I don't see how this is political. Both parties agree lab leak is a possibility (well, now they do, after Democrats called it racist).
roenxi 4y ago
Wholehearted agreement, but that leaves two interesting questions: 1) Is the report substantially correct? 2) Why do the Republicans think that this message will help them politically? Bonus points to anyone who gets through that minefield insulting the intelligence of their political opposition.
- melling 4y ago
  They covered all the bases so it’s impossible to be wrong. “More likely than not..” “More information is needed…” “As noted by the WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens, the COVID- 19 Lancet Commission, and the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence 90-Day Assessment on the COVID-19 Origins, more information is needed to arrive at a more precise, if not a definitive, understanding of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and how the COVID-19 pandemic began”
- jrootabega 4y ago
  I'll try to answer #2 in good faith - people have a limited amount of anger and hostility, and a limited memory. This could get people riled up against China, and against anyone who had been skeptical of a lab leak, two weeks before midterm elections.
peteradio 4y ago
Ad hominem fallacy.

NDizzle 4y ago

Can we actually discuss this, or are people still freaking out? This was incredibly obvious, even early, early on. Suppression isn’t good, folks.

ideamotor 4y ago
This is not a real report. I very much suspected this is what happened but the trustworthy peer-reviewed studies have disavowed it. If you trust this study over those, you probably should refuse emergency medical care and read everything backwards.
- peteradio 4y ago
  Which ones have disavowed this (very real) reports findings? As far as I've seen, there is a false dichotomy between the first spreading event being source and lab being source. Angela Rasmussen for instance is well known for her detailed studies around the live animal market but it doesn't make sense to proclaim that because it spread there that it precludes coming there via a lab worker over a game hunter.
- origin_path 4y ago
  What is a "real report" by your definition? The word report is a very general one. Peer-review studies are not exactly trustworthy on this topic, are they? The peers in question are virologists and others who directly enabled their work.
not_the_fda 4y ago
Unfortunately it became political, so all rational discussion became impossible.
- jrootabega 4y ago
  No no, it's a combination of: - impossible to have ONLY rational discussion - Unfashionable points of view being suppressed on HN by those with the numbers/power. Here's some rational discussion which I was originally unable to post because the submission had been reflexively flagged and killed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33370251 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33370251

biofox 4y ago

I've been following this discussion from the start, and this report presents the clearest and most compelling summary of the evidence I've seen so far. Excerpt from the conclusion on p.26: "Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. New information, made publicly available and independently verifiable, could change this assessment. However, the hypothesis of a natural zoonotic origin no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt, or the presumption of accuracy."

jrootabega 4y ago

In these circumstances, does it matter to public safety whether it did or didn't? It seems more important to me whether it COULD or COULD NEVER originate like this. I think things are tilted pretty heavily towards the COULD side. So if we, as a species, continue research like this (and I think we need to), it needs to be strictly quarantined. If you set foot in a facility like this, you don't get to rejoin the rest of society until you go through a multi-week quarantine site. It's remote work.

jfengel 4y ago
"COULD" is a certainty, so quarantine measures are already in place. The question is, are the quarantine measures sufficient? The answer to that is "we don't know". And the corollary, unfortunately, is "... but we can make a lot of political hay out of taking guesses."
- jrootabega 4y ago
  The general impression, which I haven't really seen challenged, is that these lab employees take precautions while in the lab, or maybe while leaving the building. I think the default sensible stance is that they're not sufficient, now that we've seen how the world is capable of reacting to an outbreak.

tunap 4y ago

What period of time could a less severe variant(s) have escaped into the wild before the more severe 'Alpha' variant gained traction? AFAIK, China, & others, were treating non-influenza, flu-like cases months before they cancelled Chinese New Year 2020. The timeline may not have been as short as a Stephen King novel and, perhaps, it was even prior to Oct/Nov 2019. My question is this: Are there any frequent/infrequent travelers to China familiar with non-asian visitors getting severe influenza(or other) infections when they 1st visit? I know one such traveler who spent 3 months in a "ghost room"(1) suffering from a lung infection back in early 2019. (1) Hospice; he reported it as called the 'ghost room' as the rest of the occupants were terminal cancer patients.

SevenNation 4y ago

Why is this flagged? It's a report from the US Senate. It reports a significant finding: > Based on the analysis of the publicly available information, it appears reasonable to conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic was, more likely than not, the result of a research-related incident. Look at all of the cautionary language in this statement. This isn't a group of Republicans fear mongering. It's a group trying to make sense of the information that currently exists. Knowing the origin of the pandemic is the only way we can hope to prevent the next one. This topic is not a political issue, it's a scientific and humanitarian one.

peteradio 4y ago
It's STILL flagged because OP hasn't contacted moderators to get a specific look. Anybody above a certain karma threshold can derail conversation, its incumbent on interested parties to doxx themselves with an email address if they want to unflag a story.
jeremyashort 4y ago
It's a report from the minority senate staffers, aka the republican staffers. It's a political ploy filled with uncertain language yet proclaiming a certain verdict. These types of things are constantly being flagged on HN (for good reason).
- SevenNation 4y ago
  What's the political angle then?
skmurphy 4y ago
See also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33377145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33377145 where Pro Publica digs in and essentially agrees with their conclusions as to the likelihood of a lab leak origin.