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Quick to begin, not to end, I should add. I agree it would likely be a pretty severe recession. Letting inflation run wild for a decade is probably the less pa
by adam_arthur 4y ago
Quick to begin, not to end, I should add. I agree it would likely be a pretty severe recession.
Letting inflation run wild for a decade is probably the less painful path all else equal, but for legacy reasons Powell won’t choose that route. He would be remembered as a failure, just as Arthur Burns is.
I would add that goods inflation is actually coming down, it’s much more about services inflation now which is labor supply driven, primarily.
Services make up a majority of the CPI and aren’t impacted by logistics for the most part.